Traders price a PB victory margin of 10-15% at 40.5% implied probability, driven by the latest polling averages from the past week showing PB consistently ahead of GERB-SDS by 11-14 points in national vote share for the October 27 snap parliamentary election. This reflects PB's gains among working-class and rural voters amid GERB-SDS struggles with voter fatigue from repeated elections—now the seventh since 2021—following failed coalition talks after June's EU parliamentary vote. Proportional representation with a 4% threshold ensures no outright majority, heightening focus on the leader's margin before coalition negotiations. No major shifts in the last 48 hours, but final debates and turnout in battleground districts could narrow the gap, explaining elevated odds on tighter PB margins like <5% and 5-10%.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於PB 10-15% 41%
PB 5-10% 24%
PB <5% 23%
GERB-SDS勝利 22%
NEW
NEW
Apr 19, 2026
PB 20%+
21%
PB 15-20%
21%
PB 10-15%
41%
PB 5-10%
24%
PB <5%
23%
GERB-SDS勝利
22%
Other
21%
PB 10-15% 41%
PB 5-10% 24%
PB <5% 23%
GERB-SDS勝利 22%
NEW
NEW
Apr 19, 2026
PB 20%+
$20 交易量
21%
PB 15-20%
$0 交易量
21%
PB 10-15%
$140 交易量
41%
PB 5-10%
$0 交易量
24%
PB <5%
$0 交易量
23%
GERB-SDS勝利
$0 交易量
22%
Other
$0 交易量
21%
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Bulgaria on April 19, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid votes in this election.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the political party that wins the most valid votes nationwide and the political party that wins the second-most valid votes nationwide. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If two or more parties tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between the two parties listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed party and an unlisted party, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed party. If the tie is between two or more unlisted parties, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted party wins the most valid votes in this election, or the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).Traders price a PB victory margin of 10-15% at 40.5% implied probability, driven by the latest polling averages from the past week showing PB consistently ahead of GERB-SDS by 11-14 points in national vote share for the October 27 snap parliamentary election. This reflects PB's gains among working-class and rural voters amid GERB-SDS struggles with voter fatigue from repeated elections—now the seventh since 2021—following failed coalition talks after June's EU parliamentary vote. Proportional representation with a 4% threshold ensures no outright majority, heightening focus on the leader's margin before coalition negotiations. No major shifts in the last 48 hours, but final debates and turnout in battleground districts could narrow the gap, explaining elevated odds on tighter PB margins like <5% and 5-10%.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Bulgaria on April 19, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid votes in this election.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the political party that wins the most valid votes nationwide and the political party that wins the second-most valid votes nationwide. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If two or more parties tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between the two parties listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed party and an unlisted party, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed party. If the tie is between two or more unlisted parties, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted party wins the most valid votes in this election, or the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid votes in this election.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the political party that wins the most valid votes nationwide and the political party that wins the second-most valid votes nationwide. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If two or more parties tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between the two parties listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed party and an unlisted party, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed party. If the tie is between two or more unlisted parties, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted party wins the most valid votes in this election, or the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).
市場開放時間： Mar 27, 2026, 2:02 PM ET
交易量
$160結束日期
Apr 19, 2026市場開放時間
Mar 27, 2026, 2:02 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Bulgaria on April 19, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid votes in this election.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the political party that wins the most valid votes nationwide and the political party that wins the second-most valid votes nationwide. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If two or more parties tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between the two parties listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed party and an unlisted party, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed party. If the tie is between two or more unlisted parties, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted party wins the most valid votes in this election, or the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).Traders price a PB victory margin of 10-15% at 40.5% implied probability, driven by the latest polling averages from the past week showing PB consistently ahead of GERB-SDS by 11-14 points in national vote share for the October 27 snap parliamentary election. This reflects PB's gains among working-class and rural voters amid GERB-SDS struggles with voter fatigue from repeated elections—now the seventh since 2021—following failed coalition talks after June's EU parliamentary vote. Proportional representation with a 4% threshold ensures no outright majority, heightening focus on the leader's margin before coalition negotiations. No major shifts in the last 48 hours, but final debates and turnout in battleground districts could narrow the gap, explaining elevated odds on tighter PB margins like <5% and 5-10%.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Bulgaria on April 19, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid votes in this election.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the political party that wins the most valid votes nationwide and the political party that wins the second-most valid votes nationwide. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If two or more parties tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between the two parties listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed party and an unlisted party, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed party. If the tie is between two or more unlisted parties, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted party wins the most valid votes in this election, or the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid votes in this election.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the political party that wins the most valid votes nationwide and the political party that wins the second-most valid votes nationwide. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If two or more parties tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between the two parties listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed party and an unlisted party, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed party. If the tie is between two or more unlisted parties, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted party wins the most valid votes in this election, or the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).
交易量
$160結束日期
Apr 19, 2026市場開放時間
Mar 27, 2026, 2:02 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders price a PB victory margin of 10-15% at 40.5% implied probability, driven by the latest polling averages from the past week showing PB consistently ahead of GERB-SDS by 11-14 points in national vote share for the October 27 snap parliamentary election. This reflects PB's gains among working-class and rural voters amid GERB-SDS struggles with voter fatigue from repeated elections—now the seventh since 2021—following failed coalition talks after June's EU parliamentary vote. Proportional representation with a 4% threshold ensures no outright majority, heightening focus on the leader's margin before coalition negotiations. No major shifts in the last 48 hours, but final debates and turnout in battleground districts could narrow the gap, explaining elevated odds on tighter PB margins like <5% and 5-10%.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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Frequently Asked Questions