Recent polls from independent firms like 21 Kutatóközpont and Medián show Péter Magyar's Tisza party extending its lead over Viktor Orbán's Fidesz-KDNP alliance to 12-23 points among decided voters, driving trader consensus to price Tisza at 70% implied probability of winning Hungary's April 12 parliamentary election. This reflects Tisza's surge as a unified opposition challenger amid voter fatigue with Fidesz's 16-year rule, economic pressures, and EU tensions, despite Fidesz-favorable gerrymandering in the 106 single-member districts and proportional list seats. Pro-government polls claim narrower gaps post-Peace March, but markets favor independents; final-week campaign tensions and turnout in battleground areas could tip the balance for a Tisza majority government.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於TISZA 70%
青民盟-基民黨 31%
尤比克 <1%
民主聯盟(DK) <1%
$56,265,193 交易量
$56,265,193 交易量

TISZA
70%

青民盟-基民黨
31%

尤比克
<1%

民主聯盟(DK)
<1%

LMP
<1%

MSZP
<1%

動量運動
<1%

我們的祖國運動(Mi Hazánk)
<1%

對話黨
<1%

基督教民主人民黨(KDNP)
<1%
TISZA 70%
青民盟-基民黨 31%
尤比克 <1%
民主聯盟(DK) <1%
$56,265,193 交易量
$56,265,193 交易量

TISZA
70%

青民盟-基民黨
31%

尤比克
<1%

民主聯盟(DK)
<1%

LMP
<1%

MSZP
<1%

動量運動
<1%

我們的祖國運動(Mi Hazánk)
<1%

對話黨
<1%

基督教民主人民黨(KDNP)
<1%
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Hungarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
市場開放時間: Dec 16, 2025, 3:19 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Hungarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent polls from independent firms like 21 Kutatóközpont and Medián show Péter Magyar's Tisza party extending its lead over Viktor Orbán's Fidesz-KDNP alliance to 12-23 points among decided voters, driving trader consensus to price Tisza at 70% implied probability of winning Hungary's April 12 parliamentary election. This reflects Tisza's surge as a unified opposition challenger amid voter fatigue with Fidesz's 16-year rule, economic pressures, and EU tensions, despite Fidesz-favorable gerrymandering in the 106 single-member districts and proportional list seats. Pro-government polls claim narrower gaps post-Peace March, but markets favor independents; final-week campaign tensions and turnout in battleground areas could tip the balance for a Tisza majority government.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions