Market icon
世界·巴西

巴西總統選舉

Market icon
世界·巴西

巴西總統選舉

路易斯·伊納西奧·盧拉·達席爾瓦 44%

弗拉維奧·博索納羅 39.0%

雷南·桑托斯 5.8%

費爾南多·哈達德 4.2%

Polymarket

$38,239,525 交易量

路易斯·伊納西奧·盧拉·達席爾瓦 44%

弗拉維奧·博索納羅 39.0%

雷南·桑托斯 5.8%

費爾南多·哈達德 4.2%

Polymarket

$38,239,525 交易量

Market icon

路易斯·伊納西奧·盧拉·達席爾瓦

$4,303,145 交易量

44%

Market icon

弗拉維奧·博索納羅

$3,795,406 交易量

39%

Market icon

雷南·桑托斯

$3,612,222 交易量

6%

Market icon

費爾南多·哈達德

$2,971,298 交易量

4%

Market icon

羅納爾多·卡亞多

$1,295,878 交易量

2%

Market icon

羅梅烏·澤馬

$242,476 交易量

2%

Market icon

塔爾西西奧·德·弗雷塔斯

$5,965,132 交易量

1%

Market icon

賈伊爾·博爾索納羅

$2,480,665 交易量

1%

Market icon

傑拉爾多·阿爾克明

$234,917 交易量

<1%

Market icon

愛德華多·萊特

$555,302 交易量

<1%

Market icon

米歇爾·波索納羅

$2,886,607 交易量

<1%

Market icon

愛德華多·博索納羅

$5,103,297 交易量

<1%

Market icon

卡米洛·桑塔納

$381,032 交易量

<1%

Market icon

拉蒂尼奧·儒尼奧

$4,413,291 交易量

<1%

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls, including AtlasIntel/Bloomberg and others from late March, show President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in a statistical tie or near-tie in simulated second-round matchups for Brazil's October 4 first-round presidential election, reflecting trader consensus on a razor-thin race with Lula at 43.5% implied probability versus Flávio's 39.1%. Flávio's surge stems from consolidating the right-wing base amid Jair Bolsonaro's imprisonment and ineligibility, while Lula's incumbency advantages are offset by middling approval ratings and economic headwinds like inflation pressures. The fragmented field beyond the top two dilutes alternatives, keeping the duel dominant. Separation could arise from upcoming party conventions, fresh economic data, scandals, or regional endorsements before candidate registrations in August.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
交易量
$38,239,525
結束日期
2026-10-04
市場開放時間
Sep 18, 2025, 4:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls, including AtlasIntel/Bloomberg and others from late March, show President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in a statistical tie or near-tie in simulated second-round matchups for Brazil's October 4 first-round presidential election, reflecting trader consensus on a razor-thin race with Lula at 43.5% implied probability versus Flávio's 39.1%. Flávio's surge stems from consolidating the right-wing base amid Jair Bolsonaro's imprisonment and ineligibility, while Lula's incumbency advantages are offset by middling approval ratings and economic headwinds like inflation pressures. The fragmented field beyond the top two dilutes alternatives, keeping the duel dominant. Separation could arise from upcoming party conventions, fresh economic data, scandals, or regional endorsements before candidate registrations in August.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
交易量
$38,239,525
結束日期
2026-10-04
市場開放時間
Sep 18, 2025, 4:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"巴西總統選舉" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 14 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "路易斯·伊納西奧·盧拉·達席爾瓦" at 44%, followed by "弗拉維奧·博索納羅" at 39%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 44¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 44% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "巴西總統選舉" has generated $38.2 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Sep 18, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "巴西總統選舉," browse the 14 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "巴西總統選舉" is "路易斯·伊納西奧·盧拉·達席爾瓦" at 44%, meaning the market assigns a 44% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "弗拉維奧·博索納羅" at 39%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "巴西總統選舉" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.