Brazil's Supreme Federal Court (STF) justices have never been removed by impeachment in the country's history, reflecting deep institutional protections and Senate reluctance to pursue such cases despite numerous petitions. Current procedural rules—tightened by recent STF decisions requiring Prosecutor-General initiation and a two-thirds Senate supermajority—create substantial hurdles, while the chamber has consistently declined to advance complaints, including those tied to the 2026 Banco Master investigation targeting figures like Gilmar Mendes and Alexandre de Moraes. With only months remaining before 2027 and the October 2026 elections unlikely to alter the balance quickly enough, traders assign a 96.4% implied probability to no removals occurring. Plausible shifts could still arise from a post-election Senate realignment enabling faster action or an unforeseen major scandal bypassing existing limits.