Ousted Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro's bid to dismiss U.S. federal narco-terrorism, cocaine importation conspiracy, and weapons charges was rejected by a New York judge on March 26, bolstering prospects for conviction and lengthy sentencing under mandatory minimums of 20–30 years, yet trader consensus remains split with no prison time at 37.5% edging 60+ months at 29.5%. His January 3 military capture in Caracas and not-guilty plea have fueled debate over case strength, given the narcoterrorism statute's sparse trial history—31 guilty pleas but few full trials—and ongoing disputes blocking Venezuelan funding for his defense. Upcoming hearings on legal fees and pretrial motions could tip odds toward acquittal risks or plea deals reducing time served, keeping the contest tight amid evidentiary uncertainties.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於無需服刑 38%
60+ 24%
40–60 14%
20–40 10.5%
$446,338 交易量
$446,338 交易量
2027-12-31
無需服刑
38%
少於20年
4%
20–40
11%
40–60
14%
60+
30%
無需服刑 38%
60+ 24%
40–60 14%
20–40 10.5%
$446,338 交易量
$446,338 交易量
2027-12-31
無需服刑
$349,794 交易量
38%
少於20年
$27,937 交易量
4%
20–40
$27,070 交易量
11%
40–60
$12,830 交易量
14%
60+
$28,707 交易量
30%
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ousted Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro's bid to dismiss U.S. federal narco-terrorism, cocaine importation conspiracy, and weapons charges was rejected by a New York judge on March 26, bolstering prospects for conviction and lengthy sentencing under mandatory minimums of 20–30 years, yet trader consensus remains split with no prison time at 37.5% edging 60+ months at 29.5%. His January 3 military capture in Caracas and not-guilty plea have fueled debate over case strength, given the narcoterrorism statute's sparse trial history—31 guilty pleas but few full trials—and ongoing disputes blocking Venezuelan funding for his defense. Upcoming hearings on legal fees and pretrial motions could tip odds toward acquittal risks or plea deals reducing time served, keeping the contest tight amid evidentiary uncertainties.
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Jan 4, 2026, 12:29 PM ET
交易量
$446,338結束日期
2027-12-31市場開放時間
Jan 4, 2026, 12:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ousted Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro's bid to dismiss U.S. federal narco-terrorism, cocaine importation conspiracy, and weapons charges was rejected by a New York judge on March 26, bolstering prospects for conviction and lengthy sentencing under mandatory minimums of 20–30 years, yet trader consensus remains split with no prison time at 37.5% edging 60+ months at 29.5%. His January 3 military capture in Caracas and not-guilty plea have fueled debate over case strength, given the narcoterrorism statute's sparse trial history—31 guilty pleas but few full trials—and ongoing disputes blocking Venezuelan funding for his defense. Upcoming hearings on legal fees and pretrial motions could tip odds toward acquittal risks or plea deals reducing time served, keeping the contest tight amid evidentiary uncertainties.
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$446,338結束日期
2027-12-31市場開放時間
Jan 4, 2026, 12:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Ousted Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro's bid to dismiss U.S. federal narco-terrorism, cocaine importation conspiracy, and weapons charges was rejected by a New York judge on March 26, bolstering prospects for conviction and lengthy sentencing under mandatory minimums of 20–30 years, yet trader consensus remains split with no prison time at 37.5% edging 60+ months at 29.5%. His January 3 military capture in Caracas and not-guilty plea have fueled debate over case strength, given the narcoterrorism statute's sparse trial history—31 guilty pleas but few full trials—and ongoing disputes blocking Venezuelan funding for his defense. Upcoming hearings on legal fees and pretrial motions could tip odds toward acquittal risks or plea deals reducing time served, keeping the contest tight amid evidentiary uncertainties.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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