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政治·司各都

SCOTUS lets Trump fire FTC commissioners in Trump v. Slaughter?

Market icon
政治·司各都

SCOTUS lets Trump fire FTC commissioners in Trump v. Slaughter?

82% 機率
Polymarket

$20,689 交易量

82% 機率
Polymarket

$20,689 交易量

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Supreme Court, in Trump v. Slaughter, rules to overturn Humphrey's Executor v. United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The Supreme Court will be considered to overturn Humphrey's Executor v. United States if they issue a decision in Trump v. Slaughter overruling or substantially limiting Humphrey's Executor v. United States (1935), including ruling that the President may remove FTC commissioners at will. If the Supreme court ruling in Trump v. Slaughter affirms that for-cause removal protections for FTC commissioners remain constitutional or if the case is dismissed, settled, or otherwise disposed of without a merits decision within this market’s timeframe, the market will resolve to “No”. If no Supreme Court ruling on the merits of Trump v. Slaughter is issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Supreme Court; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on an 81.8% implied probability for SCOTUS ruling in favor of President Trump in Trump v. Slaughter stems from oral arguments on December 8, 2025, where conservative justices signaled strong support for striking down statutory for-cause removal protections for Federal Trade Commission commissioners, potentially overruling or narrowing Humphrey's Executor v. United States. This aligns with recent precedents like Seila Law LLC v. CFPB and Collins v. Yellen, which expanded executive removal authority over independent agencies amid separation of powers concerns. Trump fired Commissioner Rebecca Kelly Slaughter in March 2025; lower courts deemed it unlawful and ordered reinstatement, but SCOTUS granted a stay pending merits decision, now overdue from the October 2025 term with no release as of early April 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Supreme Court, in Trump v. Slaughter, rules to overturn Humphrey's Executor v. United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The Supreme Court will be considered to overturn Humphrey's Executor v. United States if they issue a decision in Trump v. Slaughter overruling or substantially limiting Humphrey's Executor v. United States (1935), including ruling that the President may remove FTC commissioners at will.

If the Supreme court ruling in Trump v. Slaughter affirms that for-cause removal protections for FTC commissioners remain constitutional or if the case is dismissed, settled, or otherwise disposed of without a merits decision within this market’s timeframe, the market will resolve to “No”. If no Supreme Court ruling on the merits of Trump v. Slaughter is issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Supreme Court; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$20,689
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Jan 20, 2026, 10:54 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Supreme Court, in Trump v. Slaughter, rules to overturn Humphrey's Executor v. United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The Supreme Court will be considered to overturn Humphrey's Executor v. United States if they issue a decision in Trump v. Slaughter overruling or substantially limiting Humphrey's Executor v. United States (1935), including ruling that the President may remove FTC commissioners at will. If the Supreme court ruling in Trump v. Slaughter affirms that for-cause removal protections for FTC commissioners remain constitutional or if the case is dismissed, settled, or otherwise disposed of without a merits decision within this market’s timeframe, the market will resolve to “No”. If no Supreme Court ruling on the merits of Trump v. Slaughter is issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Supreme Court; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Supreme Court, in Trump v. Slaughter, rules to overturn Humphrey's Executor v. United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The Supreme Court will be considered to overturn Humphrey's Executor v. United States if they issue a decision in Trump v. Slaughter overruling or substantially limiting Humphrey's Executor v. United States (1935), including ruling that the President may remove FTC commissioners at will. If the Supreme court ruling in Trump v. Slaughter affirms that for-cause removal protections for FTC commissioners remain constitutional or if the case is dismissed, settled, or otherwise disposed of without a merits decision within this market’s timeframe, the market will resolve to “No”. If no Supreme Court ruling on the merits of Trump v. Slaughter is issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Supreme Court; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on an 81.8% implied probability for SCOTUS ruling in favor of President Trump in Trump v. Slaughter stems from oral arguments on December 8, 2025, where conservative justices signaled strong support for striking down statutory for-cause removal protections for Federal Trade Commission commissioners, potentially overruling or narrowing Humphrey's Executor v. United States. This aligns with recent precedents like Seila Law LLC v. CFPB and Collins v. Yellen, which expanded executive removal authority over independent agencies amid separation of powers concerns. Trump fired Commissioner Rebecca Kelly Slaughter in March 2025; lower courts deemed it unlawful and ordered reinstatement, but SCOTUS granted a stay pending merits decision, now overdue from the October 2025 term with no release as of early April 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Supreme Court, in Trump v. Slaughter, rules to overturn Humphrey's Executor v. United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The Supreme Court will be considered to overturn Humphrey's Executor v. United States if they issue a decision in Trump v. Slaughter overruling or substantially limiting Humphrey's Executor v. United States (1935), including ruling that the President may remove FTC commissioners at will.

If the Supreme court ruling in Trump v. Slaughter affirms that for-cause removal protections for FTC commissioners remain constitutional or if the case is dismissed, settled, or otherwise disposed of without a merits decision within this market’s timeframe, the market will resolve to “No”. If no Supreme Court ruling on the merits of Trump v. Slaughter is issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Supreme Court; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$20,689
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Jan 20, 2026, 10:54 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Supreme Court, in Trump v. Slaughter, rules to overturn Humphrey's Executor v. United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The Supreme Court will be considered to overturn Humphrey's Executor v. United States if they issue a decision in Trump v. Slaughter overruling or substantially limiting Humphrey's Executor v. United States (1935), including ruling that the President may remove FTC commissioners at will. If the Supreme court ruling in Trump v. Slaughter affirms that for-cause removal protections for FTC commissioners remain constitutional or if the case is dismissed, settled, or otherwise disposed of without a merits decision within this market’s timeframe, the market will resolve to “No”. If no Supreme Court ruling on the merits of Trump v. Slaughter is issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Supreme Court; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"SCOTUS lets Trump fire FTC commissioners in Trump v. Slaughter?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 82% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 82¢, the market collectively assigns a 82% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "SCOTUS lets Trump fire FTC commissioners in Trump v. Slaughter?" has generated $20.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 20, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "SCOTUS lets Trump fire FTC commissioners in Trump v. Slaughter?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "SCOTUS lets Trump fire FTC commissioners in Trump v. Slaughter?" is 82% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 82% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "SCOTUS lets Trump fire FTC commissioners in Trump v. Slaughter?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.