Recent polls, including Ideia (April 3-7) showing Lula at 40.4% to Flávio Bolsonaro's 37% and Paraná Pesquisas (March 25-28) with Lula at 41.3% over 37.8%, reflect a razor-thin first-round lead for incumbent President Lula da Silva, averaging under 4 percentage points over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro amid a fragmented field where no candidate nears 50%. This trader consensus, captured in Lula <5% margin pricing at 39.5%, stems from Flávio's surge in late-March surveys like AtlasIntel (45.9%-40.1%) narrowing gaps, economic pressures eroding Lula's support, and low odds for outright victories by Ratinho Júnior or Tarcísio de Freitas. A likely runoff looms absent major shifts before October 4.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於盧拉·達席爾瓦 <5% 34%
弗拉維奧·博爾索納羅 <5% 19%
盧拉·達席爾瓦 5–10% 18%
弗拉維奧·波索納羅 5-10% 8.1%
$215,679 交易量
$215,679 交易量
2026-10-04
魯拉·達席爾瓦15%+
6%
盧拉·達席爾瓦10-15%
4%
盧拉·達席爾瓦 5–10%
18%
盧拉·達席爾瓦 <5%
40%
弗拉維奧·博索納羅領先10%+
6%
弗拉維奧·波索納羅 5-10%
8%
弗拉維奧·博爾索納羅 <5%
19%
雷南·桑托斯勝利
5%
塔西西歐·德·弗雷塔斯勝利
1%
拉蒂尼奧·儒尼奧爾勝選
2%
其他
7%
盧拉·達席爾瓦 <5% 34%
弗拉維奧·博爾索納羅 <5% 19%
盧拉·達席爾瓦 5–10% 18%
弗拉維奧·波索納羅 5-10% 8.1%
$215,679 交易量
$215,679 交易量
2026-10-04
魯拉·達席爾瓦15%+
$3,721 交易量
6%
盧拉·達席爾瓦10-15%
$1,512 交易量
4%
盧拉·達席爾瓦 5–10%
$5,226 交易量
18%
盧拉·達席爾瓦 <5%
$1,788 交易量
40%
弗拉維奧·博索納羅領先10%+
$956 交易量
6%
弗拉維奧·波索納羅 5-10%
$1,046 交易量
8%
弗拉維奧·博爾索納羅 <5%
$2,002 交易量
19%
雷南·桑托斯勝利
$196,897 交易量
5%
塔西西歐·德·弗雷塔斯勝利
$627 交易量
1%
拉蒂尼奧·儒尼奧爾勝選
$884 交易量
2%
其他
$1,019 交易量
7%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls, including Ideia (April 3-7) showing Lula at 40.4% to Flávio Bolsonaro's 37% and Paraná Pesquisas (March 25-28) with Lula at 41.3% over 37.8%, reflect a razor-thin first-round lead for incumbent President Lula da Silva, averaging under 4 percentage points over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro amid a fragmented field where no candidate nears 50%. This trader consensus, captured in Lula <5% margin pricing at 39.5%, stems from Flávio's surge in late-March surveys like AtlasIntel (45.9%-40.1%) narrowing gaps, economic pressures eroding Lula's support, and low odds for outright victories by Ratinho Júnior or Tarcísio de Freitas. A likely runoff looms absent major shifts before October 4.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
市場開放時間： Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ET
交易量
$215,679結束日期
2026-10-04市場開放時間
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls, including Ideia (April 3-7) showing Lula at 40.4% to Flávio Bolsonaro's 37% and Paraná Pesquisas (March 25-28) with Lula at 41.3% over 37.8%, reflect a razor-thin first-round lead for incumbent President Lula da Silva, averaging under 4 percentage points over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro amid a fragmented field where no candidate nears 50%. This trader consensus, captured in Lula <5% margin pricing at 39.5%, stems from Flávio's surge in late-March surveys like AtlasIntel (45.9%-40.1%) narrowing gaps, economic pressures eroding Lula's support, and low odds for outright victories by Ratinho Júnior or Tarcísio de Freitas. A likely runoff looms absent major shifts before October 4.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
交易量
$215,679結束日期
2026-10-04市場開放時間
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent polls, including Ideia (April 3-7) showing Lula at 40.4% to Flávio Bolsonaro's 37% and Paraná Pesquisas (March 25-28) with Lula at 41.3% over 37.8%, reflect a razor-thin first-round lead for incumbent President Lula da Silva, averaging under 4 percentage points over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro amid a fragmented field where no candidate nears 50%. This trader consensus, captured in Lula <5% margin pricing at 39.5%, stems from Flávio's surge in late-March surveys like AtlasIntel (45.9%-40.1%) narrowing gaps, economic pressures eroding Lula's support, and low odds for outright victories by Ratinho Júnior or Tarcísio de Freitas. A likely runoff looms absent major shifts before October 4.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions