Market icon
政治·巴西

巴西總統選舉第一輪：第二名

Market icon
政治·巴西

巴西總統選舉第一輪：第二名

弗拉維奧·波索納羅 63%

路易斯·伊納西奧·盧拉·達席爾瓦 18%

雷南·桑托斯 5.5%

費爾南多·哈達 5.0%

Polymarket

$2,738,896 交易量

弗拉維奧·波索納羅 63%

路易斯·伊納西奧·盧拉·達席爾瓦 18%

雷南·桑托斯 5.5%

費爾南多·哈達 5.0%

Polymarket

$2,738,896 交易量

Market icon

弗拉維奧·波索納羅

$22,765 交易量

63%

Market icon

路易斯·伊納西奧·盧拉·達席爾瓦

$25,957 交易量

18%

Market icon

雷南·桑托斯

$955,663 交易量

6%

Market icon

費爾南多·哈達

$624,785 交易量

5%

Market icon

羅納爾多·卡亞多

$177,174 交易量

3%

Market icon

羅梅烏·澤馬

$115,145 交易量

2%

Market icon

哈蒂諾·朱尼奧爾

$593,658 交易量

1%

Market icon

Geraldo Alckmin

$70,707 交易量

<1%

Market icon

卡米洛·桑塔納

$17,969 交易量

<1%

Market icon

塔西西奧·德·弗雷塔斯

$74,277 交易量

<1%

Market icon

米歇爾·波索納羅

$23,029 交易量

<1%

Market icon

雅伊爾·博爾索納羅

$18,107 交易量

<1%

Market icon

愛德華多·波索納羅

$19,659 交易量

<1%

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls, including the latest AtlasIntel survey released April 2 showing President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 43.7% and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro at 40.4% in stimulated first-round scenarios, have solidified trader consensus that Flávio will finish second on October 4, far ahead of rivals like Romeu Zema (4.7%) or Renan Santos (3.3%). Lula leads national polling averages by 3-6 points across firms like Paraná Pesquisas and Gerp, but Flávio's surge—closing gaps in key regions outside the Northeast—has consolidated right-wing support amid Jair Bolsonaro's ineligibility, making a Lula-Flávio runoff the market-implied outcome. Lula's 17.5% odds for second reflect slim chances of a Flávio first-round win, with others trailing due to fragmented fields.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.

The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
交易量
$2,738,896
結束日期
2026-10-04
市場開放時間
Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls, including the latest AtlasIntel survey released April 2 showing President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 43.7% and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro at 40.4% in stimulated first-round scenarios, have solidified trader consensus that Flávio will finish second on October 4, far ahead of rivals like Romeu Zema (4.7%) or Renan Santos (3.3%). Lula leads national polling averages by 3-6 points across firms like Paraná Pesquisas and Gerp, but Flávio's surge—closing gaps in key regions outside the Northeast—has consolidated right-wing support amid Jair Bolsonaro's ineligibility, making a Lula-Flávio runoff the market-implied outcome. Lula's 17.5% odds for second reflect slim chances of a Flávio first-round win, with others trailing due to fragmented fields.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.

The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
交易量
$2,738,896
結束日期
2026-10-04
市場開放時間
Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"巴西總統選舉第一輪：第二名" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 13 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "弗拉維奧·波索納羅" at 63%, followed by "路易斯·伊納西奧·盧拉·達席爾瓦" at 18%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 63¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 63% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "巴西總統選舉第一輪：第二名" has generated $2.7 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 11, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "巴西總統選舉第一輪：第二名," browse the 13 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "巴西總統選舉第一輪：第二名" is "弗拉維奧·波索納羅" at 63%, meaning the market assigns a 63% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "路易斯·伊納西奧·盧拉·達席爾瓦" at 18%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "巴西總統選舉第一輪：第二名" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.