Trader consensus heavily favors the PL at 75.5% implied probability to secure the most seats among the 54 up for election in Brazil's Senate on October 4, 2026, driven by its roster of competitive candidates like Michelle Bolsonaro in the Distrito Federal, Claudio Castro in Rio de Janeiro, and Carlos Bolsonaro in Santa Catarina, as shown in March 2026 polls from Paraná Pesquisas and Real Time Big Data aggregated by VEJA. Recent projections from Correio da Manhã (March 14) suggest PL could claim up to 10 seats, outpacing rivals amid Flávio Bolsonaro's presidential surge tying President Lula in runoff simulations. MDB trails at 16% with strong incumbents like Eduardo Braga (Amazonas) and Álvaro Dias (Paraná), reflecting its regional leads and centrist alliances, while UNIÃO's 5.1% stems from scattered viability in states like Ceará. Leadership remains fluid in many states, with further polls and candidate filings ahead.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於PL 76%
巴西民主運動黨（MDB） 16%
聯盟黨（UNIÃO） 5.1%
社會民主黨（PSD） 2.1%
$246,735 交易量
$246,735 交易量
2026-10-04
PL
76%
巴西民主運動黨（MDB）
16%
聯盟黨（UNIÃO）
5%
社會民主黨（PSD）
2%
新黨（NOVO）
1%
PSDB
<1%
工人黨（PT）
<1%
巴西社會黨（PSB）
<1%
PODEMOS
<1%
進步黨（PP）
<1%
共和黨（REPUBLICANOS）
<1%
PDT
<1%
PL 76%
巴西民主運動黨（MDB） 16%
聯盟黨（UNIÃO） 5.1%
社會民主黨（PSD） 2.1%
$246,735 交易量
$246,735 交易量
2026-10-04
PL
$240,358 交易量
76%
巴西民主運動黨（MDB）
$610 交易量
16%
聯盟黨（UNIÃO）
$652 交易量
5%
社會民主黨（PSD）
$718 交易量
2%
新黨（NOVO）
$686 交易量
1%
PSDB
$476 交易量
<1%
工人黨（PT）
$586 交易量
<1%
巴西社會黨（PSB）
$526 交易量
<1%
PODEMOS
$465 交易量
<1%
進步黨（PP）
$661 交易量
<1%
共和黨（REPUBLICANOS）
$529 交易量
<1%
PDT
$467 交易量
<1%
The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate election.
Only seats contested in the next Brazilian Senate election will be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Trader consensus heavily favors the PL at 75.5% implied probability to secure the most seats among the 54 up for election in Brazil's Senate on October 4, 2026, driven by its roster of competitive candidates like Michelle Bolsonaro in the Distrito Federal, Claudio Castro in Rio de Janeiro, and Carlos Bolsonaro in Santa Catarina, as shown in March 2026 polls from Paraná Pesquisas and Real Time Big Data aggregated by VEJA. Recent projections from Correio da Manhã (March 14) suggest PL could claim up to 10 seats, outpacing rivals amid Flávio Bolsonaro's presidential surge tying President Lula in runoff simulations. MDB trails at 16% with strong incumbents like Eduardo Braga (Amazonas) and Álvaro Dias (Paraná), reflecting its regional leads and centrist alliances, while UNIÃO's 5.1% stems from scattered viability in states like Ceará. Leadership remains fluid in many states, with further polls and candidate filings ahead.
The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate election.
Only seats contested in the next Brazilian Senate election will be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate election.
Only seats contested in the next Brazilian Senate election will be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
市場開放時間： Feb 11, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
交易量
$246,735結束日期
2026-10-04市場開放時間
Feb 11, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate election.
Only seats contested in the next Brazilian Senate election will be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Trader consensus heavily favors the PL at 75.5% implied probability to secure the most seats among the 54 up for election in Brazil's Senate on October 4, 2026, driven by its roster of competitive candidates like Michelle Bolsonaro in the Distrito Federal, Claudio Castro in Rio de Janeiro, and Carlos Bolsonaro in Santa Catarina, as shown in March 2026 polls from Paraná Pesquisas and Real Time Big Data aggregated by VEJA. Recent projections from Correio da Manhã (March 14) suggest PL could claim up to 10 seats, outpacing rivals amid Flávio Bolsonaro's presidential surge tying President Lula in runoff simulations. MDB trails at 16% with strong incumbents like Eduardo Braga (Amazonas) and Álvaro Dias (Paraná), reflecting its regional leads and centrist alliances, while UNIÃO's 5.1% stems from scattered viability in states like Ceará. Leadership remains fluid in many states, with further polls and candidate filings ahead.
The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate election.
Only seats contested in the next Brazilian Senate election will be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate election.
Only seats contested in the next Brazilian Senate election will be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
交易量
$246,735結束日期
2026-10-04市場開放時間
Feb 11, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors the PL at 75.5% implied probability to secure the most seats among the 54 up for election in Brazil's Senate on October 4, 2026, driven by its roster of competitive candidates like Michelle Bolsonaro in the Distrito Federal, Claudio Castro in Rio de Janeiro, and Carlos Bolsonaro in Santa Catarina, as shown in March 2026 polls from Paraná Pesquisas and Real Time Big Data aggregated by VEJA. Recent projections from Correio da Manhã (March 14) suggest PL could claim up to 10 seats, outpacing rivals amid Flávio Bolsonaro's presidential surge tying President Lula in runoff simulations. MDB trails at 16% with strong incumbents like Eduardo Braga (Amazonas) and Álvaro Dias (Paraná), reflecting its regional leads and centrist alliances, while UNIÃO's 5.1% stems from scattered viability in states like Ceará. Leadership remains fluid in many states, with further polls and candidate filings ahead.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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