Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Liberal candidate Tatiana Auguste at 61.5% to win the Terrebonne federal by-election in Quebec, driven by recent polls showing her leading Bloc Québécois challenger Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné, priced at 36.5%. A November 18 Abacus Data survey indicated Auguste at 42% versus Sinclair-Desgagné's 35%, amid Liberal gains in provincial sentiment and national polling recovery under Trudeau. The Bloc's historical hold on the riding since 2019 faces headwinds from low expected turnout and Conservative Maxime Beaudoin's 15% share splitting right-leaning votes. Minor candidates trail at 0.1%, reflecting negligible support. With voting on November 25, final campaign pushes could shift odds further.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於Terrebone By-Election Winner
Terrebone By-Election Winner
塔蒂亞娜·奧古斯特 62%
Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné 37%
Maxime Beaudoin <1%
Maria Cantore <1%
$21,426 交易量
$21,426 交易量

塔蒂亞娜·奧古斯特
62%

Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné
37%

Maxime Beaudoin
<1%

Maria Cantore
<1%

Adrienne Charles
<1%

Benjamin Rankin
<1%
塔蒂亞娜·奧古斯特 62%
Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné 37%
Maxime Beaudoin <1%
Maria Cantore <1%
$21,426 交易量
$21,426 交易量

塔蒂亞娜·奧古斯特
62%

Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné
37%

Maxime Beaudoin
<1%

Maria Cantore
<1%

Adrienne Charles
<1%

Benjamin Rankin
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the Terrebonne, Quebec seat in the House of Commons of Canada.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Canadian government, specifically Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).
市場開放時間: Mar 23, 2026, 6:16 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Liberal candidate Tatiana Auguste at 61.5% to win the Terrebonne federal by-election in Quebec, driven by recent polls showing her leading Bloc Québécois challenger Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné, priced at 36.5%. A November 18 Abacus Data survey indicated Auguste at 42% versus Sinclair-Desgagné's 35%, amid Liberal gains in provincial sentiment and national polling recovery under Trudeau. The Bloc's historical hold on the riding since 2019 faces headwinds from low expected turnout and Conservative Maxime Beaudoin's 15% share splitting right-leaning votes. Minor candidates trail at 0.1%, reflecting negligible support. With voting on November 25, final campaign pushes could shift odds further.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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