Polymarket's trader consensus assigns a 100% implied probability to no change in the Bank of Canada's April policy rate, directly reflecting the central bank's April 29 announcement holding the target overnight rate steady at 2.25% amid balanced risks. March 2026 CPI inflation accelerated to 2.4% year-over-year, driven by gasoline surges from the Iran war's oil shock—projected transitory with core measures stable above 2% and long-term expectations anchored—offset by a softening labor market (unemployment in the 6.5%-7% range) and modest GDP growth forecast at 1.2% for 2026 under US tariff pressures. Governing Council is monitoring for persistence in energy-led inflation, with readiness to adjust; next decision June 10. Realistic challenges include extended Middle East volatility broadening price pressures, though post-announcement positioning remains firmly entrenched.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於維持不變 100.0%
降息50個基點以上 <1%
下調25個基點 <1%
加息 <1%
$251,926 交易量
$251,926 交易量
降息50個基點以上
否
下調25個基點
否
維持不變
是
加息
否
維持不變 100.0%
降息50個基點以上 <1%
下調25個基點 <1%
加息 <1%
$251,926 交易量
$251,926 交易量
降息50個基點以上
否
下調25個基點
否
維持不變
是
加息
否
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its April 29, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
市場開放時間: Jan 30, 2026, 7:07 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its April 29, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
Polymarket's trader consensus assigns a 100% implied probability to no change in the Bank of Canada's April policy rate, directly reflecting the central bank's April 29 announcement holding the target overnight rate steady at 2.25% amid balanced risks. March 2026 CPI inflation accelerated to 2.4% year-over-year, driven by gasoline surges from the Iran war's oil shock—projected transitory with core measures stable above 2% and long-term expectations anchored—offset by a softening labor market (unemployment in the 6.5%-7% range) and modest GDP growth forecast at 1.2% for 2026 under US tariff pressures. Governing Council is monitoring for persistence in energy-led inflation, with readiness to adjust; next decision June 10. Realistic challenges include extended Middle East volatility broadening price pressures, though post-announcement positioning remains firmly entrenched.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions