Polymarket traders overwhelmingly back no change in the Bank of Canada's policy rate at its April 29, 2026 announcement, with a 97.2% implied probability reflecting the Governing Council's March 18 hold at 2.25% amid balanced inflation and growth risks. February CPI eased to 1.8% year-over-year, supporting the pause despite volatile energy prices from geopolitical tensions and US tariffs pressuring trade; unemployment held steady near 6.7%, tempering hike pressures. This skin-in-the-game consensus prices a wait-and-see stance, but hotter March CPI prints, escalating oil shocks, or robust jobs data ahead of the meeting could challenge the hold by reviving rate-increase odds above 2.5%.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於維持不變 97.2%
加息 2.6%
下調25個基點 <1%
降息50個基點以上 <1%
$80,019 交易量
$80,019 交易量
降息50個基點以上
<1%
下調25個基點
<1%
維持不變
97%
加息
3%
維持不變 97.2%
加息 2.6%
下調25個基點 <1%
降息50個基點以上 <1%
$80,019 交易量
$80,019 交易量
降息50個基點以上
<1%
下調25個基點
<1%
維持不變
97%
加息
3%
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its April 29, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
市場開放時間: Jan 30, 2026, 7:07 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its April 29, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders overwhelmingly back no change in the Bank of Canada's policy rate at its April 29, 2026 announcement, with a 97.2% implied probability reflecting the Governing Council's March 18 hold at 2.25% amid balanced inflation and growth risks. February CPI eased to 1.8% year-over-year, supporting the pause despite volatile energy prices from geopolitical tensions and US tariffs pressuring trade; unemployment held steady near 6.7%, tempering hike pressures. This skin-in-the-game consensus prices a wait-and-see stance, but hotter March CPI prints, escalating oil shocks, or robust jobs data ahead of the meeting could challenge the hold by reviving rate-increase odds above 2.5%.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions