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經濟艙·全球價格

Bank of Canada Rate Hike in 2026?

Market icon
經濟艙·全球價格

Bank of Canada Rate Hike in 2026?

41% 機率
Polymarket
最新
41% 機率
Polymarket
最新
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Bank of Canada's target for the overnight rate is increased at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bank of Canada (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 59.5% implied probability against a Bank of Canada rate hike in 2026, driven by persistent disinflation and labor market softening that anchor the policy rate at 2.25%. The BoC held steady on March 18 amid February CPI easing to 1.8% year-over-year—below the 2% target—and unemployment climbing to 6.7% after an 84,000-job loss, signaling subdued demand pressures. Governor Macklem noted reliance on judgment to navigate Iran-war-induced energy shocks boosting oil prices, with overnight index swap curves pricing only modest hike odds totaling around 43 basis points for the year. Key catalysts include March CPI on April 20 and the April 29 policy decision with Monetary Policy Report.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Bank of Canada's target for the overnight rate is increased at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bank of Canada (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$2,665
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Mar 11, 2026, 5:51 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Bank of Canada's target for the overnight rate is increased at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bank of Canada (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Bank of Canada's target for the overnight rate is increased at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bank of Canada (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 59.5% implied probability against a Bank of Canada rate hike in 2026, driven by persistent disinflation and labor market softening that anchor the policy rate at 2.25%. The BoC held steady on March 18 amid February CPI easing to 1.8% year-over-year—below the 2% target—and unemployment climbing to 6.7% after an 84,000-job loss, signaling subdued demand pressures. Governor Macklem noted reliance on judgment to navigate Iran-war-induced energy shocks boosting oil prices, with overnight index swap curves pricing only modest hike odds totaling around 43 basis points for the year. Key catalysts include March CPI on April 20 and the April 29 policy decision with Monetary Policy Report.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Bank of Canada's target for the overnight rate is increased at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bank of Canada (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$2,665
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Mar 11, 2026, 5:51 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Bank of Canada's target for the overnight rate is increased at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bank of Canada (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"Bank of Canada Rate Hike in 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 41% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 41¢, the market collectively assigns a 41% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Bank of Canada Rate Hike in 2026?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Mar 11, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Bank of Canada Rate Hike in 2026?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Bank of Canada Rate Hike in 2026?" is 41% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 41% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Bank of Canada Rate Hike in 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.