Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 59.5% implied probability of a Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cash rate increase at the May 5 meeting, reflecting persistent inflation pressures following back-to-back 25 basis point hikes to 4.10% in February and March 2026. February CPI rose 3.7% year-on-year—above the 2-3% target band—despite a slight dip from January, with trimmed mean core inflation holding steady at 3.3% annually amid energy shocks. Strong February employment gains of 48,900 offset a tick-up in unemployment to 4.3%, bolstering tightening expectations echoed by major banks like CBA and UBS forecasting a hike to 4.35%. No change at 40.5% accounts for modest cooling signals, while a cut remains negligible at 0.8%; watch March-quarter CPI data due late April for potential shifts.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於上調 60%
維持不變 41%
下調 <1%
$22,268 交易量
$22,268 交易量
2026-05-05
下調
1%
維持不變
41%
上調
60%
上調 60%
維持不變 41%
下調 <1%
$22,268 交易量
$22,268 交易量
2026-05-05
下調
$6,485 交易量
1%
維持不變
$2,675 交易量
41%
上調
$13,108 交易量
60%
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the cash rate resulting from the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board’s May meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of Australia after its May 5, 2026 meeting, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of Australia calendar: https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/board-meeting-schedules.html
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of Australia's media release for their May 5, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the target for the cash rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 59.5% implied probability of a Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cash rate increase at the May 5 meeting, reflecting persistent inflation pressures following back-to-back 25 basis point hikes to 4.10% in February and March 2026. February CPI rose 3.7% year-on-year—above the 2-3% target band—despite a slight dip from January, with trimmed mean core inflation holding steady at 3.3% annually amid energy shocks. Strong February employment gains of 48,900 offset a tick-up in unemployment to 4.3%, bolstering tightening expectations echoed by major banks like CBA and UBS forecasting a hike to 4.35%. No change at 40.5% accounts for modest cooling signals, while a cut remains negligible at 0.8%; watch March-quarter CPI data due late April for potential shifts.
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the cash rate resulting from the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board’s May meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of Australia after its May 5, 2026 meeting, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of Australia calendar: https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/board-meeting-schedules.html
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of Australia's media release for their May 5, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the target for the cash rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of Australia after its May 5, 2026 meeting, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of Australia calendar: https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/board-meeting-schedules.html
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of Australia's media release for their May 5, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the target for the cash rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket.
市場開放時間： Feb 3, 2026, 10:32 AM ET
交易量
$22,268結束日期
2026-05-05市場開放時間
Feb 3, 2026, 10:32 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the cash rate resulting from the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board’s May meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of Australia after its May 5, 2026 meeting, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of Australia calendar: https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/board-meeting-schedules.html
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of Australia's media release for their May 5, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the target for the cash rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 59.5% implied probability of a Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cash rate increase at the May 5 meeting, reflecting persistent inflation pressures following back-to-back 25 basis point hikes to 4.10% in February and March 2026. February CPI rose 3.7% year-on-year—above the 2-3% target band—despite a slight dip from January, with trimmed mean core inflation holding steady at 3.3% annually amid energy shocks. Strong February employment gains of 48,900 offset a tick-up in unemployment to 4.3%, bolstering tightening expectations echoed by major banks like CBA and UBS forecasting a hike to 4.35%. No change at 40.5% accounts for modest cooling signals, while a cut remains negligible at 0.8%; watch March-quarter CPI data due late April for potential shifts.
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the cash rate resulting from the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board’s May meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of Australia after its May 5, 2026 meeting, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of Australia calendar: https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/board-meeting-schedules.html
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of Australia's media release for their May 5, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the target for the cash rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of Australia after its May 5, 2026 meeting, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of Australia calendar: https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/board-meeting-schedules.html
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of Australia's media release for their May 5, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the target for the cash rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket.
交易量
$22,268結束日期
2026-05-05市場開放時間
Feb 3, 2026, 10:32 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 59.5% implied probability of a Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cash rate increase at the May 5 meeting, reflecting persistent inflation pressures following back-to-back 25 basis point hikes to 4.10% in February and March 2026. February CPI rose 3.7% year-on-year—above the 2-3% target band—despite a slight dip from January, with trimmed mean core inflation holding steady at 3.3% annually amid energy shocks. Strong February employment gains of 48,900 offset a tick-up in unemployment to 4.3%, bolstering tightening expectations echoed by major banks like CBA and UBS forecasting a hike to 4.35%. No change at 40.5% accounts for modest cooling signals, while a cut remains negligible at 0.8%; watch March-quarter CPI data due late April for potential shifts.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions