Polymarket traders have priced a 98.6% implied probability for March 2026 US CPI year-over-year inflation at ≥2.8%, driven by surging energy costs from escalating Middle East tensions, including the Iran conflict, which propelled February oil prices higher amid a 0.9% consensus monthly headline gain nowcasted by Reuters and Cleveland Fed estimates around 0.84% MoM. February's steady 2.4% YoY reading masked base effects and sticky shelter costs at 3.0%, amplifying upside risks for the annual figure ahead of the April 10 BLS release. While University of Michigan year-ahead expectations hit 3.8%, a realistic challenge would require unexpectedly sharp energy price reversals or softer core services, though geopolitical risks make such downside limited.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於≥2.8% 98.7%
2.4% <1%
≤2.0% <1%
2.3% <1%
$3,148,730 交易量
$3,148,730 交易量
≤2.0%
<1%
2.1%
<1%
2.2%
<1%
2.3%
<1%
2.4%
1%
2.5%
<1%
2.6%
<1%
2.7%
<1%
≥2.8%
99%
≥2.8% 98.7%
2.4% <1%
≤2.0% <1%
2.3% <1%
$3,148,730 交易量
$3,148,730 交易量
≤2.0%
<1%
2.1%
<1%
2.2%
<1%
2.3%
<1%
2.4%
1%
2.5%
<1%
2.6%
<1%
2.7%
<1%
≥2.8%
99%
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in March 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on April 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
市場開放時間: Feb 13, 2026, 4:58 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in March 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on April 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders have priced a 98.6% implied probability for March 2026 US CPI year-over-year inflation at ≥2.8%, driven by surging energy costs from escalating Middle East tensions, including the Iran conflict, which propelled February oil prices higher amid a 0.9% consensus monthly headline gain nowcasted by Reuters and Cleveland Fed estimates around 0.84% MoM. February's steady 2.4% YoY reading masked base effects and sticky shelter costs at 3.0%, amplifying upside risks for the annual figure ahead of the April 10 BLS release. While University of Michigan year-ahead expectations hit 3.8%, a realistic challenge would require unexpectedly sharp energy price reversals or softer core services, though geopolitical risks make such downside limited.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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