Trader sentiment on Polymarket's March US CPI year-over-year (Higher Brackets) market reflects a razor-thin split between ≥3.4% (40.4% implied probability) and 3.3% (40.0%), driven primarily by surging gasoline prices from Iran war-related oil supply disruptions, which lifted Cleveland Fed nowcasts to 3.25% as of April 1—up dramatically from February's confirmed 2.4%. Key differentiators include the uncertain pass-through of WTI crude volatility and sticky core goods inflation in computers/software, offsetting shelter deceleration; Bloomberg trackers eye potential 3.4% peaks if disruptions persist. March FOMC's upward PCE revisions to 2.7% underscore persistent pressures, with BLS release April 10 poised to resolve amid elevated trader capital at stake.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於≥3.4% 40.4%
3.3% 39.8%
3.2% 14%
3.1% 4.6%
$888,996 交易量
$888,996 交易量
不超過2.6%
1%
2.7%
1%
2.8%
1%
2.9%
1%
3.0%
1%
3.1%
5%
3.2%
14%
3.3%
40%
≥3.4%
40%
≥3.4% 40.4%
3.3% 39.8%
3.2% 14%
3.1% 4.6%
$888,996 交易量
$888,996 交易量
不超過2.6%
1%
2.7%
1%
2.8%
1%
2.9%
1%
3.0%
1%
3.1%
5%
3.2%
14%
3.3%
40%
≥3.4%
40%
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in March 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on April 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
市場開放時間: Mar 11, 2026, 1:28 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in March 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on April 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment on Polymarket's March US CPI year-over-year (Higher Brackets) market reflects a razor-thin split between ≥3.4% (40.4% implied probability) and 3.3% (40.0%), driven primarily by surging gasoline prices from Iran war-related oil supply disruptions, which lifted Cleveland Fed nowcasts to 3.25% as of April 1—up dramatically from February's confirmed 2.4%. Key differentiators include the uncertain pass-through of WTI crude volatility and sticky core goods inflation in computers/software, offsetting shelter deceleration; Bloomberg trackers eye potential 3.4% peaks if disruptions persist. March FOMC's upward PCE revisions to 2.7% underscore persistent pressures, with BLS release April 10 poised to resolve amid elevated trader capital at stake.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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