Polymarket traders' consensus prices a heightened risk of U.K. CPI inflation exceeding 4% in 2026, with 4.5%+ at 40.5% narrowly leading 4.0–4.4% at 34.5%, driven by spiking energy costs from the ongoing Iran conflict that has stalled disinflation after February's steady 3.0% annual rate. Bank of England officials, holding Bank Rate at 3.75% in their March Monetary Policy Committee decision, elevated near-term CPI projections to 3.5%—up 50 basis points—citing second-round wage-price risks amid 3.6% expected pay settlements. Lower bins like 2.0–2.4% at 26% price in potential de-escalation or base effects, with March CPI data due April 22 as the key near-term catalyst.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於2.0–2.4% 26%
2.5–2.9% 23%
3.5–3.9% 17%
低於1.0% 7%
低於1.0%
7%
1.0–1.4%
6%
1.5–1.9%
21%
2.0–2.4%
26%
2.5–2.9%
23%
3.5–3.9%
11%
4.0-4.4%
35%
4.5%以上
41%
2.0–2.4% 26%
2.5–2.9% 23%
3.5–3.9% 17%
低於1.0% 7%
低於1.0%
7%
1.0–1.4%
6%
1.5–1.9%
21%
2.0–2.4%
26%
2.5–2.9%
23%
3.5–3.9%
11%
4.0-4.4%
35%
4.5%以上
41%
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar
市場開放時間: Jan 21, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders' consensus prices a heightened risk of U.K. CPI inflation exceeding 4% in 2026, with 4.5%+ at 40.5% narrowly leading 4.0–4.4% at 34.5%, driven by spiking energy costs from the ongoing Iran conflict that has stalled disinflation after February's steady 3.0% annual rate. Bank of England officials, holding Bank Rate at 3.75% in their March Monetary Policy Committee decision, elevated near-term CPI projections to 3.5%—up 50 basis points—citing second-round wage-price risks amid 3.6% expected pay settlements. Lower bins like 2.0–2.4% at 26% price in potential de-escalation or base effects, with March CPI data due April 22 as the key near-term catalyst.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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