**Federal immigration policy adjustments under the 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan, released in November 2025, form the core driver behind current trader positioning.** These measures sharply reduced new temporary resident targets—including a nearly 50% cut in international student arrivals to 155,000 and lower temporary worker entries—while stabilizing permanent resident admissions near 380,000 annually. The goal is to bring the non-permanent resident share below 5% of the total population by end-2027. **Statistics Canada data already record quarterly population declines in late 2025, including drops of roughly 76,000 and 103,000 people, contributing to the first annual decline on record by early 2026.** Parliamentary Budget Officer projections from February 2026 forecast flat overall growth for 2026 as net outflows of non-permanent residents continue to offset permanent inflows, following similar dynamics in 2025. Permanent economic immigration remains a steady positive contributor, and some data revisions from permit extensions could moderate final figures. Traders assign a modest edge to “No” (55.5%) because the scale of 2026 outflows may stabilize rather than intensify beyond the largest prior recorded drops, given policy targets and offsetting permanent inflows. Upcoming Statistics Canada quarterly releases and any further adjustments to temporary programs within the resolution window remain key variables.