Market icon
經濟艙·宏觀指標

2026年第一季度美國GDP增長？

Market icon
經濟艙·宏觀指標

2026年第一季度美國GDP增長？

4月 30

1月 29, 2027

4月 30

1月 29, 2027

2.0–2.5% 20.6%

3.0–3.5% 20%

2.5–3.0% 18.4%

≥3.5％ 13%

Polymarket

$231,230 交易量

2.0–2.5% 20.6%

3.0–3.5% 20%

2.5–3.0% 18.4%

≥3.5％ 13%

Polymarket

$231,230 交易量

少於1.0%

$21,677 交易量

6%

1.0–1.5%

$5,037 交易量

10%

1.5–2.0%

$15,122 交易量

10%

2.0–2.5%

$32,182 交易量

21%

2.5–3.0%

$13,841 交易量

18%

3.0–3.5%

$73,969 交易量

20%

≥3.5％

$69,403 交易量

13%

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution. If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Atlanta Fed's GDPNow nowcast for Q1 2026 real GDP growth fell to 1.9% on April 1—down from 2.0% prior—after weaker March retail sales and ISM manufacturing data trimmed personal consumption expenditures growth to 1.5% annualized, compounded by soft January construction spending and February's labor market contraction (92,000 payroll losses, unemployment at 4.4%). Despite this, Polymarket's trader consensus shows a razor-thin race, with 2.0–2.5% (20.6% implied probability) edging 3.0–3.5% (20.0%) and 2.5–3.0% (18.4%), reflecting resilience in manufacturing PMI (52.7, expansionary) versus downside risks from Q4 2025's revised 0.7% growth. Key swing factors include today's full international trade report and end-April BEA advance estimate.

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 30, 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.

If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
交易量
$231,230
結束日期
2026-04-30
市場開放時間
Dec 23, 2025, 5:42 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution. If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution. If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Atlanta Fed's GDPNow nowcast for Q1 2026 real GDP growth fell to 1.9% on April 1—down from 2.0% prior—after weaker March retail sales and ISM manufacturing data trimmed personal consumption expenditures growth to 1.5% annualized, compounded by soft January construction spending and February's labor market contraction (92,000 payroll losses, unemployment at 4.4%). Despite this, Polymarket's trader consensus shows a razor-thin race, with 2.0–2.5% (20.6% implied probability) edging 3.0–3.5% (20.0%) and 2.5–3.0% (18.4%), reflecting resilience in manufacturing PMI (52.7, expansionary) versus downside risks from Q4 2025's revised 0.7% growth. Key swing factors include today's full international trade report and end-April BEA advance estimate.

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 30, 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.

If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
交易量
$231,230
結束日期
2026-04-30
市場開放時間
Dec 23, 2025, 5:42 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution. If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"2026年第一季度美國GDP增長？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "2.0–2.5%" at 21%, followed by "3.0–3.5%" at 20%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 21¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 21% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "2026年第一季度美國GDP增長？" has generated $231.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 23, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "2026年第一季度美國GDP增長？," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "2026年第一季度美國GDP增長？" is "2.0–2.5%" at 21%, meaning the market assigns a 21% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "3.0–3.5%" at 20%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "2026年第一季度美國GDP增長？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.