Trader sentiment on Polymarket reflects a tight contest between 0.3-0.6% quarterly GDP growth at 34.8% implied probability and 0.9-1.2% at 30.6%, driven by weak momentum from flat January output and March flash PMIs signaling the first demand contraction since November amid surging energy costs from the Iran conflict. OECD's March 26 downgrade of 2026 UK growth to 0.7%—the sharpest globally—alongside OBR's 1.1% annual forecast underscore cyclical headwinds, higher CPI pressures, and Bank of England holding rates at 3.75% on March 19 amid uncertainty. NIESR's Q1 tracker points to 0.3% expansion via services, but swing factors include final PMIs and the imminent ONS preliminary release, with energy shocks tilting toward sub-1% outcomes.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於0.3-0.6% 27.6%
0.0-0.3% 11%
0.9-1.2% 8.8%
0.6-0.9% 5.4%
$21,586 交易量
$21,586 交易量
2026-05-14
負數
4%
0.0-0.3%
11%
0.3-0.6%
35%
0.6-0.9%
5%
0.9-1.2%
9%
1.2-1.5%
1%
1.5-1.8%
<1%
1.8%以上
2%
0.3-0.6% 27.6%
0.0-0.3% 11%
0.9-1.2% 8.8%
0.6-0.9% 5.4%
$21,586 交易量
$21,586 交易量
2026-05-14
負數
$1,804 交易量
4%
0.0-0.3%
$9,270 交易量
11%
0.3-0.6%
$994 交易量
35%
0.6-0.9%
$6,882 交易量
5%
0.9-1.2%
$594 交易量
9%
1.2-1.5%
$617 交易量
1%
1.5-1.8%
$520 交易量
<1%
1.8%以上
$913 交易量
2%
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q1 of 2026 compared with the same quarter a year ago in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for May 14, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader sentiment on Polymarket reflects a tight contest between 0.3-0.6% quarterly GDP growth at 34.8% implied probability and 0.9-1.2% at 30.6%, driven by weak momentum from flat January output and March flash PMIs signaling the first demand contraction since November amid surging energy costs from the Iran conflict. OECD's March 26 downgrade of 2026 UK growth to 0.7%—the sharpest globally—alongside OBR's 1.1% annual forecast underscore cyclical headwinds, higher CPI pressures, and Bank of England holding rates at 3.75% on March 19 amid uncertainty. NIESR's Q1 tracker points to 0.3% expansion via services, but swing factors include final PMIs and the imminent ONS preliminary release, with energy shocks tilting toward sub-1% outcomes.
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q1 of 2026 compared with the same quarter a year ago in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for May 14, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間： Feb 12, 2026, 5:33 PM ET
交易量
$21,586結束日期
2026-05-14市場開放時間
Feb 12, 2026, 5:33 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q1 of 2026 compared with the same quarter a year ago in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for May 14, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader sentiment on Polymarket reflects a tight contest between 0.3-0.6% quarterly GDP growth at 34.8% implied probability and 0.9-1.2% at 30.6%, driven by weak momentum from flat January output and March flash PMIs signaling the first demand contraction since November amid surging energy costs from the Iran conflict. OECD's March 26 downgrade of 2026 UK growth to 0.7%—the sharpest globally—alongside OBR's 1.1% annual forecast underscore cyclical headwinds, higher CPI pressures, and Bank of England holding rates at 3.75% on March 19 amid uncertainty. NIESR's Q1 tracker points to 0.3% expansion via services, but swing factors include final PMIs and the imminent ONS preliminary release, with energy shocks tilting toward sub-1% outcomes.
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q1 of 2026 compared with the same quarter a year ago in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for May 14, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$21,586結束日期
2026-05-14市場開放時間
Feb 12, 2026, 5:33 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader sentiment on Polymarket reflects a tight contest between 0.3-0.6% quarterly GDP growth at 34.8% implied probability and 0.9-1.2% at 30.6%, driven by weak momentum from flat January output and March flash PMIs signaling the first demand contraction since November amid surging energy costs from the Iran conflict. OECD's March 26 downgrade of 2026 UK growth to 0.7%—the sharpest globally—alongside OBR's 1.1% annual forecast underscore cyclical headwinds, higher CPI pressures, and Bank of England holding rates at 3.75% on March 19 amid uncertainty. NIESR's Q1 tracker points to 0.3% expansion via services, but swing factors include final PMIs and the imminent ONS preliminary release, with energy shocks tilting toward sub-1% outcomes.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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