Polymarket traders price a 70.5% implied probability of no US recession by end-2026, reflecting resilient labor market data that reinforces a soft-landing narrative amid moderating growth risks. March nonfarm payrolls surged 178,000—exceeding forecasts—while the unemployment rate dipped to 4.3%, signaling robust job creation despite Q4 2025 GDP growth slowing to 1.4% annualized. Steady February CPI at 2.4% year-over-year supports the Federal Reserve's pause at 3.50%-3.75% Fed funds rate, with one cut projected for 2026. Earlier oil price spikes from geopolitical tensions had briefly lifted recession odds above 40%, but recent strength has restored consensus. Watch March CPI on April 10 and Q1 GDP advance estimate for potential shifts ahead of the April FOMC meeting.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於是
$1,103,634 交易量
$1,103,634 交易量
2027-01-31
是
$1,103,634 交易量
$1,103,634 交易量
2027-01-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-productPolymarket traders price a 70.5% implied probability of no US recession by end-2026, reflecting resilient labor market data that reinforces a soft-landing narrative amid moderating growth risks. March nonfarm payrolls surged 178,000—exceeding forecasts—while the unemployment rate dipped to 4.3%, signaling robust job creation despite Q4 2025 GDP growth slowing to 1.4% annualized. Steady February CPI at 2.4% year-over-year supports the Federal Reserve's pause at 3.50%-3.75% Fed funds rate, with one cut projected for 2026. Earlier oil price spikes from geopolitical tensions had briefly lifted recession odds above 40%, but recent strength has restored consensus. Watch March CPI on April 10 and Q1 GDP advance estimate for potential shifts ahead of the April FOMC meeting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
市場開放時間： Sep 29, 2025, 6:26 PM ET
交易量
$1,103,634結束日期
2027-01-31市場開放時間
Sep 29, 2025, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-productPolymarket traders price a 70.5% implied probability of no US recession by end-2026, reflecting resilient labor market data that reinforces a soft-landing narrative amid moderating growth risks. March nonfarm payrolls surged 178,000—exceeding forecasts—while the unemployment rate dipped to 4.3%, signaling robust job creation despite Q4 2025 GDP growth slowing to 1.4% annualized. Steady February CPI at 2.4% year-over-year supports the Federal Reserve's pause at 3.50%-3.75% Fed funds rate, with one cut projected for 2026. Earlier oil price spikes from geopolitical tensions had briefly lifted recession odds above 40%, but recent strength has restored consensus. Watch March CPI on April 10 and Q1 GDP advance estimate for potential shifts ahead of the April FOMC meeting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
交易量
$1,103,634結束日期
2027-01-31市場開放時間
Sep 29, 2025, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Polymarket traders price a 70.5% implied probability of no US recession by end-2026, reflecting resilient labor market data that reinforces a soft-landing narrative amid moderating growth risks. March nonfarm payrolls surged 178,000—exceeding forecasts—while the unemployment rate dipped to 4.3%, signaling robust job creation despite Q4 2025 GDP growth slowing to 1.4% annualized. Steady February CPI at 2.4% year-over-year supports the Federal Reserve's pause at 3.50%-3.75% Fed funds rate, with one cut projected for 2026. Earlier oil price spikes from geopolitical tensions had briefly lifted recession odds above 40%, but recent strength has restored consensus. Watch March CPI on April 10 and Q1 GDP advance estimate for potential shifts ahead of the April FOMC meeting.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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