Market icon
經濟艙·墨西哥

2026年第一季度墨西哥GDP增長？

Market icon
經濟艙·墨西哥

2026年第一季度墨西哥GDP增長？

4月 30

4月 30

0.5-1.0% 61%

0.0-0.5% 26.9%

1.0-1.5% 17%

1.5-2.0% 14.8%

Polymarket
最新

0.5-1.0% 61%

0.0-0.5% 26.9%

1.0-1.5% 17%

1.5-2.0% 14.8%

Polymarket
最新

低於0.0%

$204 交易量

4%

0.0-0.5%

$278 交易量

27%

0.5-1.0%

$409 交易量

51%

1.0-1.5%

$504 交易量

21%

1.5-2.0%

$185 交易量

8%

2.0-2.5%

$0 交易量

1%

>2.5%

$127 交易量

3%

This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on April 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/ If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 53% implied probability for Mexico's Q1 2026 GDP growth in the 0.5-1.0% range, reflecting January's IGAE contraction of 0.9% month-over-month—driven by primary sector declines and manufacturing weakness—partially offset by February's flash IOAE estimate of 1.2% growth and March manufacturing PMI stabilization at 48.9, signaling slower contraction. This positions lower buckets ahead of higher ones despite Banxico's upgraded full-year 2026 forecast to 1.6% and BBVA's to 1.8%, citing resilient services and U.S. demand rebound from 2025's near-stagnation. Upcoming INEGI timely Q1 GDP release on April 30 could shift sentiment amid ongoing industrial pressures.

This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on April 30, 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/

If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.

Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$1,708
結束日期
2026-04-30
市場開放時間
Jan 30, 2026, 6:57 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on April 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/ If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on April 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/ If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 53% implied probability for Mexico's Q1 2026 GDP growth in the 0.5-1.0% range, reflecting January's IGAE contraction of 0.9% month-over-month—driven by primary sector declines and manufacturing weakness—partially offset by February's flash IOAE estimate of 1.2% growth and March manufacturing PMI stabilization at 48.9, signaling slower contraction. This positions lower buckets ahead of higher ones despite Banxico's upgraded full-year 2026 forecast to 1.6% and BBVA's to 1.8%, citing resilient services and U.S. demand rebound from 2025's near-stagnation. Upcoming INEGI timely Q1 GDP release on April 30 could shift sentiment amid ongoing industrial pressures.

This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on April 30, 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/

If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.

Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$1,708
結束日期
2026-04-30
市場開放時間
Jan 30, 2026, 6:57 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on April 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/ If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"2026年第一季度墨西哥GDP增長？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "0.5-1.0%" at 51%, followed by "0.0-0.5%" at 27%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 51¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 51% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"2026年第一季度墨西哥GDP增長？" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jan 31, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "2026年第一季度墨西哥GDP增長？," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "2026年第一季度墨西哥GDP增長？" is "0.5-1.0%" at 51%, meaning the market assigns a 51% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "0.0-0.5%" at 27%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "2026年第一季度墨西哥GDP增長？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.