March manufacturing PMIs rebounded into expansion territory—official NBS at 50.4% from 49.0% and Caixin at 50.8%—bolstering trader sentiment for China Q1 2026 GDP growth clustering in the 4.5-5.5% range, where Polymarket-implied probabilities stand at 53.5% for 4.5-5.0% and 45.0% for 5.0-5.5% in a closely contested market. This split reflects debate over whether Jan-Feb data beats (industrial production and retail sales exceeding forecasts, fixed-asset investment up 1.8% versus expected contraction) sustain amid post-Lunar New Year normalization, aligning with Beijing's 4.5-5.0% annual target and bank estimates around 4.8%. Key differentiators include pending March industrial output and retail figures, plus global trade risks; official Q1 release expected mid-April.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於4.5-5.0% 54%
5.0-5.5% 45%
5.5-6.0% 1.1%
4.0-4.5% 1.0%
$236,633 交易量
$236,633 交易量
2026-04-17
低於3.5%
<1%
3.5-4.0%
<1%
4.0-4.5%
1%
4.5-5.0%
54%
5.0-5.5%
45%
5.5-6.0%
1%
6.0%以上
<1%
4.5-5.0% 54%
5.0-5.5% 45%
5.5-6.0% 1.1%
4.0-4.5% 1.0%
$236,633 交易量
$236,633 交易量
2026-04-17
低於3.5%
$16,878 交易量
<1%
3.5-4.0%
$53,437 交易量
<1%
4.0-4.5%
$37,178 交易量
1%
4.5-5.0%
$23,519 交易量
54%
5.0-5.5%
$23,664 交易量
45%
5.5-6.0%
$56,903 交易量
1%
6.0%以上
$25,053 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 17, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.htmlMarch manufacturing PMIs rebounded into expansion territory—official NBS at 50.4% from 49.0% and Caixin at 50.8%—bolstering trader sentiment for China Q1 2026 GDP growth clustering in the 4.5-5.5% range, where Polymarket-implied probabilities stand at 53.5% for 4.5-5.0% and 45.0% for 5.0-5.5% in a closely contested market. This split reflects debate over whether Jan-Feb data beats (industrial production and retail sales exceeding forecasts, fixed-asset investment up 1.8% versus expected contraction) sustain amid post-Lunar New Year normalization, aligning with Beijing's 4.5-5.0% annual target and bank estimates around 4.8%. Key differentiators include pending March industrial output and retail figures, plus global trade risks; official Q1 release expected mid-April.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 17, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
市場開放時間： Jan 21, 2026, 7:11 PM ET
交易量
$236,633結束日期
2026-04-17市場開放時間
Jan 21, 2026, 7:11 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 17, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.htmlMarch manufacturing PMIs rebounded into expansion territory—official NBS at 50.4% from 49.0% and Caixin at 50.8%—bolstering trader sentiment for China Q1 2026 GDP growth clustering in the 4.5-5.5% range, where Polymarket-implied probabilities stand at 53.5% for 4.5-5.0% and 45.0% for 5.0-5.5% in a closely contested market. This split reflects debate over whether Jan-Feb data beats (industrial production and retail sales exceeding forecasts, fixed-asset investment up 1.8% versus expected contraction) sustain amid post-Lunar New Year normalization, aligning with Beijing's 4.5-5.0% annual target and bank estimates around 4.8%. Key differentiators include pending March industrial output and retail figures, plus global trade risks; official Q1 release expected mid-April.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 17, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
交易量
$236,633結束日期
2026-04-17市場開放時間
Jan 21, 2026, 7:11 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...March manufacturing PMIs rebounded into expansion territory—official NBS at 50.4% from 49.0% and Caixin at 50.8%—bolstering trader sentiment for China Q1 2026 GDP growth clustering in the 4.5-5.5% range, where Polymarket-implied probabilities stand at 53.5% for 4.5-5.0% and 45.0% for 5.0-5.5% in a closely contested market. This split reflects debate over whether Jan-Feb data beats (industrial production and retail sales exceeding forecasts, fixed-asset investment up 1.8% versus expected contraction) sustain amid post-Lunar New Year normalization, aligning with Beijing's 4.5-5.0% annual target and bank estimates around 4.8%. Key differentiators include pending March industrial output and retail figures, plus global trade risks; official Q1 release expected mid-April.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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警惕外部連結哦。
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