Recent independent forecasts for UK GDP growth in 2026 cluster between 0.7% and 1.4%, with the IMF at 1.0% (revised up from 0.8%), OECD at 0.9%, EY at 0.9%, and NIESR at 1.4%, aligning closely with the market's 62.1% implied probability on 1-2% annual growth. First-half 2026 data show subdued momentum, including 0.6% quarter-on-quarter expansion in Q1 and 0.4% in Q2, alongside annual rates near 1.1-1.2%, tempered by elevated inflation from energy shocks and geopolitical risks. These factors, combined with modest fiscal support and expected Bank of England rate cuts, underpin trader consensus on subdued but positive expansion while capping odds of stronger outcomes above 2%. Key upcoming releases include further ONS monthly GDP estimates and inflation prints that could refine the range.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於1-2% 62.1%
0-1% 32%
低於0% 5.0%
2-3% 3.9%
$71,363 交易量
$71,363 交易量
2027-02-12
低於0%
5%
0-1%
32%
1-2%
62%
2-3%
4%
3-4%
3%
4-5%
<1%
5%+
<1%
1-2% 62.1%
0-1% 32%
低於0% 5.0%
2-3% 3.9%
$71,363 交易量
$71,363 交易量
2027-02-12
低於0%
$11,048 交易量
5%
0-1%
$18,529 交易量
32%
1-2%
$22,972 交易量
62%
2-3%
$4,139 交易量
4%
3-4%
$3,126 交易量
3%
4-5%
$8,268 交易量
<1%
5%+
$3,282 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent independent forecasts for UK GDP growth in 2026 cluster between 0.7% and 1.4%, with the IMF at 1.0% (revised up from 0.8%), OECD at 0.9%, EY at 0.9%, and NIESR at 1.4%, aligning closely with the market's 62.1% implied probability on 1-2% annual growth. First-half 2026 data show subdued momentum, including 0.6% quarter-on-quarter expansion in Q1 and 0.4% in Q2, alongside annual rates near 1.1-1.2%, tempered by elevated inflation from energy shocks and geopolitical risks. These factors, combined with modest fiscal support and expected Bank of England rate cuts, underpin trader consensus on subdued but positive expansion while capping odds of stronger outcomes above 2%. Key upcoming releases include further ONS monthly GDP estimates and inflation prints that could refine the range.
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間： Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ET
交易量
$71,363結束日期
2027-02-12市場開放時間
Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent independent forecasts for UK GDP growth in 2026 cluster between 0.7% and 1.4%, with the IMF at 1.0% (revised up from 0.8%), OECD at 0.9%, EY at 0.9%, and NIESR at 1.4%, aligning closely with the market's 62.1% implied probability on 1-2% annual growth. First-half 2026 data show subdued momentum, including 0.6% quarter-on-quarter expansion in Q1 and 0.4% in Q2, alongside annual rates near 1.1-1.2%, tempered by elevated inflation from energy shocks and geopolitical risks. These factors, combined with modest fiscal support and expected Bank of England rate cuts, underpin trader consensus on subdued but positive expansion while capping odds of stronger outcomes above 2%. Key upcoming releases include further ONS monthly GDP estimates and inflation prints that could refine the range.
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$71,363結束日期
2027-02-12市場開放時間
Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent independent forecasts for UK GDP growth in 2026 cluster between 0.7% and 1.4%, with the IMF at 1.0% (revised up from 0.8%), OECD at 0.9%, EY at 0.9%, and NIESR at 1.4%, aligning closely with the market's 62.1% implied probability on 1-2% annual growth. First-half 2026 data show subdued momentum, including 0.6% quarter-on-quarter expansion in Q1 and 0.4% in Q2, alongside annual rates near 1.1-1.2%, tempered by elevated inflation from energy shocks and geopolitical risks. These factors, combined with modest fiscal support and expected Bank of England rate cuts, underpin trader consensus on subdued but positive expansion while capping odds of stronger outcomes above 2%. Key upcoming releases include further ONS monthly GDP estimates and inflation prints that could refine the range.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions