Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Eurozone 2026 annual GDP growth in the 0-1.0% range at 38.3% implied probability, closely trailed by 1.0-2.0% (31.5%) and contraction (<0%, 26.8%), reflecting heightened stagflation risks from the Middle East conflict's energy shock. March HICP inflation surged to 2.5%—above the ECB's 2% target—while the composite PMI fell to a 10-month low of 50.5, signaling near-stalled activity amid Brent crude near $120/barrel and LNG prices up 60%. ECB staff projections downgraded 2026 growth to 0.9% (from prior estimates around 1.3-1.5%), with inflation at 2.6%, as Goldman Sachs and OECD further trimmed forecasts by 0.4-0.7 percentage points. Key differentiators include war duration, oil trajectory, and ECB's potential rate hikes; Q1 GDP data due late April could sway positioning.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於0-1.0% 50.5%
1.0-2.0% 31%
低於0% 23.5%
2.0-3.0% 18%
最新
最新
2027-01-31
低於0%
28%
0-1.0%
38%
1.0-2.0%
31%
2.0-3.0%
18%
3.0-4.0%
21%
4.0-5.0%
3%
5.0-6.0%
17%
6.0-7.0%
15%
7.0%以上
15%
0-1.0% 50.5%
1.0-2.0% 31%
低於0% 23.5%
2.0-3.0% 18%
最新
最新
2027-01-31
低於0%
$0 交易量
28%
0-1.0%
$414 交易量
38%
1.0-2.0%
$0 交易量
31%
2.0-3.0%
$0 交易量
18%
3.0-4.0%
$0 交易量
21%
4.0-5.0%
$1,359 交易量
3%
5.0-6.0%
$0 交易量
17%
6.0-7.0%
$524 交易量
15%
7.0%以上
$0 交易量
15%
This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Eurozone 2026 annual GDP growth in the 0-1.0% range at 38.3% implied probability, closely trailed by 1.0-2.0% (31.5%) and contraction (<0%, 26.8%), reflecting heightened stagflation risks from the Middle East conflict's energy shock. March HICP inflation surged to 2.5%—above the ECB's 2% target—while the composite PMI fell to a 10-month low of 50.5, signaling near-stalled activity amid Brent crude near $120/barrel and LNG prices up 60%. ECB staff projections downgraded 2026 growth to 0.9% (from prior estimates around 1.3-1.5%), with inflation at 2.6%, as Goldman Sachs and OECD further trimmed forecasts by 0.4-0.7 percentage points. Key differentiators include war duration, oil trajectory, and ECB's potential rate hikes; Q1 GDP data due late April could sway positioning.
This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間： Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
交易量
$2,297結束日期
2027-01-31市場開放時間
Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Eurozone 2026 annual GDP growth in the 0-1.0% range at 38.3% implied probability, closely trailed by 1.0-2.0% (31.5%) and contraction (<0%, 26.8%), reflecting heightened stagflation risks from the Middle East conflict's energy shock. March HICP inflation surged to 2.5%—above the ECB's 2% target—while the composite PMI fell to a 10-month low of 50.5, signaling near-stalled activity amid Brent crude near $120/barrel and LNG prices up 60%. ECB staff projections downgraded 2026 growth to 0.9% (from prior estimates around 1.3-1.5%), with inflation at 2.6%, as Goldman Sachs and OECD further trimmed forecasts by 0.4-0.7 percentage points. Key differentiators include war duration, oil trajectory, and ECB's potential rate hikes; Q1 GDP data due late April could sway positioning.
This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$2,297結束日期
2027-01-31市場開放時間
Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Eurozone 2026 annual GDP growth in the 0-1.0% range at 38.3% implied probability, closely trailed by 1.0-2.0% (31.5%) and contraction (<0%, 26.8%), reflecting heightened stagflation risks from the Middle East conflict's energy shock. March HICP inflation surged to 2.5%—above the ECB's 2% target—while the composite PMI fell to a 10-month low of 50.5, signaling near-stalled activity amid Brent crude near $120/barrel and LNG prices up 60%. ECB staff projections downgraded 2026 growth to 0.9% (from prior estimates around 1.3-1.5%), with inflation at 2.6%, as Goldman Sachs and OECD further trimmed forecasts by 0.4-0.7 percentage points. Key differentiators include war duration, oil trajectory, and ECB's potential rate hikes; Q1 GDP data due late April could sway positioning.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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