Polymarket traders assign a 53.5% implied probability to Japan Q1 2026 GDP growth exceeding 1.2% on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate basis, closely tracking the Japan Center for Economic Research's April 7 median forecaster estimate of 1.48%. This consensus stems from March 9's upward revision to Q4 2025 GDP at 1.3% saar, fueled by robust capital expenditures that signal carryover momentum into Q1, bolstered by improving business sentiment in the March Tankan survey and January-February activity data affirming moderate expansion. A weakening yen supports net exports, though March manufacturing PMI softening to 51.6 has lifted the 0.9–1.1% outcome to 24.9%. Key catalysts include the Bank of Japan’s April 27–28 meeting and mid-May Q1 flash GDP release.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於1.2%以上 52.7%
0.3–0.5% 37.1%
0.9–1.1% 25.1%
0.0–0.2% 24%
最新
最新
2026-05-19
≤-0.4%
4%
-0.3– -0.1%
15%
0.0–0.2%
24%
0.3–0.5%
24%
0.6–0.8%
24%
0.9–1.1%
25%
1.2%以上
51%
1.2%以上 52.7%
0.3–0.5% 37.1%
0.9–1.1% 25.1%
0.0–0.2% 24%
最新
最新
2026-05-19
≤-0.4%
$167 交易量
4%
-0.3– -0.1%
$60 交易量
15%
0.0–0.2%
$109 交易量
24%
0.3–0.5%
$79 交易量
24%
0.6–0.8%
$102 交易量
24%
0.9–1.1%
$106 交易量
25%
1.2%以上
$593 交易量
51%
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlPolymarket traders assign a 53.5% implied probability to Japan Q1 2026 GDP growth exceeding 1.2% on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate basis, closely tracking the Japan Center for Economic Research's April 7 median forecaster estimate of 1.48%. This consensus stems from March 9's upward revision to Q4 2025 GDP at 1.3% saar, fueled by robust capital expenditures that signal carryover momentum into Q1, bolstered by improving business sentiment in the March Tankan survey and January-February activity data affirming moderate expansion. A weakening yen supports net exports, though March manufacturing PMI softening to 51.6 has lifted the 0.9–1.1% outcome to 24.9%. Key catalysts include the Bank of Japan’s April 27–28 meeting and mid-May Q1 flash GDP release.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
市場開放時間： Feb 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ET
交易量
$1,215結束日期
2026-05-19市場開放時間
Feb 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlPolymarket traders assign a 53.5% implied probability to Japan Q1 2026 GDP growth exceeding 1.2% on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate basis, closely tracking the Japan Center for Economic Research's April 7 median forecaster estimate of 1.48%. This consensus stems from March 9's upward revision to Q4 2025 GDP at 1.3% saar, fueled by robust capital expenditures that signal carryover momentum into Q1, bolstered by improving business sentiment in the March Tankan survey and January-February activity data affirming moderate expansion. A weakening yen supports net exports, though March manufacturing PMI softening to 51.6 has lifted the 0.9–1.1% outcome to 24.9%. Key catalysts include the Bank of Japan’s April 27–28 meeting and mid-May Q1 flash GDP release.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
交易量
$1,215結束日期
2026-05-19市場開放時間
Feb 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders assign a 53.5% implied probability to Japan Q1 2026 GDP growth exceeding 1.2% on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate basis, closely tracking the Japan Center for Economic Research's April 7 median forecaster estimate of 1.48%. This consensus stems from March 9's upward revision to Q4 2025 GDP at 1.3% saar, fueled by robust capital expenditures that signal carryover momentum into Q1, bolstered by improving business sentiment in the March Tankan survey and January-February activity data affirming moderate expansion. A weakening yen supports net exports, though March manufacturing PMI softening to 51.6 has lifted the 0.9–1.1% outcome to 24.9%. Key catalysts include the Bank of Japan’s April 27–28 meeting and mid-May Q1 flash GDP release.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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