Trader consensus prices an 85.5% implied probability against a China-Japan military clash before 2027, driven by persistent but restrained posturing amid longstanding Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands disputes and Taiwan Strait contingencies. Late March saw Japan deploy 1,000km-range Type-12 missiles in Kyushu—capable of striking coastal China—and host initial US F-35A rotations at Misawa Air Base, prompting Beijing's stark warnings of retaliation if sovereignty is challenged. China has intensified naval patrols near the islands and criticized Tokyo's defensive buildup as offensive, yet no direct firefights or airspace incursions have escalated to combat. Strong economic interdependence, US-Japan security treaty obligations, and diplomatic rhetoric without kinetic action sustain de-escalation signals, though a Taiwan crisis could shift odds rapidly.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於是
$543,677 交易量
$543,677 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$543,677 交易量
$543,677 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Japan between November 17, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Japanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Japan Coast Guard (JCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices an 85.5% implied probability against a China-Japan military clash before 2027, driven by persistent but restrained posturing amid longstanding Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands disputes and Taiwan Strait contingencies. Late March saw Japan deploy 1,000km-range Type-12 missiles in Kyushu—capable of striking coastal China—and host initial US F-35A rotations at Misawa Air Base, prompting Beijing's stark warnings of retaliation if sovereignty is challenged. China has intensified naval patrols near the islands and criticized Tokyo's defensive buildup as offensive, yet no direct firefights or airspace incursions have escalated to combat. Strong economic interdependence, US-Japan security treaty obligations, and diplomatic rhetoric without kinetic action sustain de-escalation signals, though a Taiwan crisis could shift odds rapidly.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Japan between November 17, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Japanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Japan Coast Guard (JCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Japanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Japan Coast Guard (JCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Nov 18, 2025, 10:43 AM ET
交易量
$543,677結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 18, 2025, 10:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Japan between November 17, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Japanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Japan Coast Guard (JCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices an 85.5% implied probability against a China-Japan military clash before 2027, driven by persistent but restrained posturing amid longstanding Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands disputes and Taiwan Strait contingencies. Late March saw Japan deploy 1,000km-range Type-12 missiles in Kyushu—capable of striking coastal China—and host initial US F-35A rotations at Misawa Air Base, prompting Beijing's stark warnings of retaliation if sovereignty is challenged. China has intensified naval patrols near the islands and criticized Tokyo's defensive buildup as offensive, yet no direct firefights or airspace incursions have escalated to combat. Strong economic interdependence, US-Japan security treaty obligations, and diplomatic rhetoric without kinetic action sustain de-escalation signals, though a Taiwan crisis could shift odds rapidly.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Japan between November 17, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Japanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Japan Coast Guard (JCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Japanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Japan Coast Guard (JCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$543,677結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 18, 2025, 10:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices an 85.5% implied probability against a China-Japan military clash before 2027, driven by persistent but restrained posturing amid longstanding Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands disputes and Taiwan Strait contingencies. Late March saw Japan deploy 1,000km-range Type-12 missiles in Kyushu—capable of striking coastal China—and host initial US F-35A rotations at Misawa Air Base, prompting Beijing's stark warnings of retaliation if sovereignty is challenged. China has intensified naval patrols near the islands and criticized Tokyo's defensive buildup as offensive, yet no direct firefights or airspace incursions have escalated to combat. Strong economic interdependence, US-Japan security treaty obligations, and diplomatic rhetoric without kinetic action sustain de-escalation signals, though a Taiwan crisis could shift odds rapidly.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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