Trader consensus on an 85.5% implied probability of no military clash between China and Japan before 2027 reflects persistent but restrained gray-zone activities in the East China Sea, including near-record Chinese Coast Guard patrols around the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands and recent Japanese Air Self-Defense Force scrambles against Chinese aircraft intrusions on April 1 and March 25. Japan's February announcement to deploy missiles on islands near Taiwan drew stern Chinese diplomatic warnings, yet both sides have limited responses to verbal protests, airspace warnings, and coast guard standoffs amid the 2025–2026 diplomatic crisis sparked by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's remarks. Economic interdependence, U.S. alliance commitments under the security treaty, and mutual deterrence sustain this equilibrium, with no verified kinetic engagements despite heightened rhetoric.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於是
$570,011 交易量
$570,011 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$570,011 交易量
$570,011 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Japan between November 17, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Japanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Japan Coast Guard (JCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on an 85.5% implied probability of no military clash between China and Japan before 2027 reflects persistent but restrained gray-zone activities in the East China Sea, including near-record Chinese Coast Guard patrols around the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands and recent Japanese Air Self-Defense Force scrambles against Chinese aircraft intrusions on April 1 and March 25. Japan's February announcement to deploy missiles on islands near Taiwan drew stern Chinese diplomatic warnings, yet both sides have limited responses to verbal protests, airspace warnings, and coast guard standoffs amid the 2025–2026 diplomatic crisis sparked by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's remarks. Economic interdependence, U.S. alliance commitments under the security treaty, and mutual deterrence sustain this equilibrium, with no verified kinetic engagements despite heightened rhetoric.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Japan between November 17, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Japanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Japan Coast Guard (JCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Japanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Japan Coast Guard (JCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Nov 18, 2025, 10:43 AM ET
交易量
$570,011結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 18, 2025, 10:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Japan between November 17, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Japanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Japan Coast Guard (JCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on an 85.5% implied probability of no military clash between China and Japan before 2027 reflects persistent but restrained gray-zone activities in the East China Sea, including near-record Chinese Coast Guard patrols around the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands and recent Japanese Air Self-Defense Force scrambles against Chinese aircraft intrusions on April 1 and March 25. Japan's February announcement to deploy missiles on islands near Taiwan drew stern Chinese diplomatic warnings, yet both sides have limited responses to verbal protests, airspace warnings, and coast guard standoffs amid the 2025–2026 diplomatic crisis sparked by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's remarks. Economic interdependence, U.S. alliance commitments under the security treaty, and mutual deterrence sustain this equilibrium, with no verified kinetic engagements despite heightened rhetoric.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Japan between November 17, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Japanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Japan Coast Guard (JCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Japanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Japan Coast Guard (JCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$570,011結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 18, 2025, 10:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on an 85.5% implied probability of no military clash between China and Japan before 2027 reflects persistent but restrained gray-zone activities in the East China Sea, including near-record Chinese Coast Guard patrols around the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands and recent Japanese Air Self-Defense Force scrambles against Chinese aircraft intrusions on April 1 and March 25. Japan's February announcement to deploy missiles on islands near Taiwan drew stern Chinese diplomatic warnings, yet both sides have limited responses to verbal protests, airspace warnings, and coast guard standoffs amid the 2025–2026 diplomatic crisis sparked by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's remarks. Economic interdependence, U.S. alliance commitments under the security treaty, and mutual deterrence sustain this equilibrium, with no verified kinetic engagements despite heightened rhetoric.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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