Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by December 31, 2027, at just 23% likelihood, driven by the absence of mobilization signals from the People's Liberation Army despite periodic military drills. Recent exercises in May and October 2024, following Taiwan President Lai Ching-te's speeches, were extensive but mirrored prior patterns without amphibious invasion preparations. U.S. arms sales, including a $2 billion package approved in September, bolster Taiwan's defenses under the Taiwan Relations Act, while restarted U.S.-China military talks signal de-escalation efforts. Beijing's APEC statements reaffirm "peaceful reunification," and economic interdependence with global markets heightens invasion costs, sustaining low odds amid ongoing deterrence.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於是
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2027
是
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
市場開放時間： Mar 17, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
交易量
$709結束日期
Dec 31, 2027市場開放時間
Mar 17, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$709結束日期
Dec 31, 2027市場開放時間
Mar 17, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by December 31, 2027, at just 23% likelihood, driven by the absence of mobilization signals from the People's Liberation Army despite periodic military drills. Recent exercises in May and October 2024, following Taiwan President Lai Ching-te's speeches, were extensive but mirrored prior patterns without amphibious invasion preparations. U.S. arms sales, including a $2 billion package approved in September, bolster Taiwan's defenses under the Taiwan Relations Act, while restarted U.S.-China military talks signal de-escalation efforts. Beijing's APEC statements reaffirm "peaceful reunification," and economic interdependence with global markets heightens invasion costs, sustaining low odds amid ongoing deterrence.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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