Trader consensus prices a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, at just 8.5% likelihood, driven by the absence of concrete military preparations like amphibious force buildups or blockades, alongside China's economic headwinds including sluggish growth and property sector woes. Recent PLA exercises, such as Joint Sword-2024B in October following Taiwan President Lai Ching-te's National Day speech affirming sovereignty, remain calibrated responses without escalation signals. US arms sales totaling $2 billion in October bolster Taiwan's defenses, while alliances like AUKUS enhance deterrence. These factors, absent aggressive shifts, anchor the high "No" odds, though US election outcomes could influence cross-strait dynamics.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於是
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
是
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
市場開放時間： Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ET
交易量
$3,269結束日期
Sep 30, 2026市場開放時間
Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$3,269結束日期
Sep 30, 2026市場開放時間
Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, at just 8.5% likelihood, driven by the absence of concrete military preparations like amphibious force buildups or blockades, alongside China's economic headwinds including sluggish growth and property sector woes. Recent PLA exercises, such as Joint Sword-2024B in October following Taiwan President Lai Ching-te's National Day speech affirming sovereignty, remain calibrated responses without escalation signals. US arms sales totaling $2 billion in October bolster Taiwan's defenses, while alliances like AUKUS enhance deterrence. These factors, absent aggressive shifts, anchor the high "No" odds, though US election outcomes could influence cross-strait dynamics.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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