Trader consensus reflects an 87.5% implied probability of no military clash in the Taiwan Strait before 2027, anchored by the U.S. Office of the Director of National Intelligence's March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment, which concludes Chinese leaders lack plans for a Taiwan invasion that year due to prohibitive costs, potential U.S. intervention, and a preference for unification without force. Beijing persists with gray-zone coercion via frequent PLA aircraft incursions and naval patrols, as seen in Taiwan's recent reports of surged Chinese military activity, prompting Taipei to extend its Han Kuang war games into April and fortify outlying islands like Pratas. While escalation risks linger amid cross-strait rhetoric, no major diplomatic breakthroughs or blockades have emerged in the past 30 days to shift odds significantly.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於是
$1,512,794 交易量
$1,512,794 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$1,512,794 交易量
$1,512,794 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus reflects an 87.5% implied probability of no military clash in the Taiwan Strait before 2027, anchored by the U.S. Office of the Director of National Intelligence's March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment, which concludes Chinese leaders lack plans for a Taiwan invasion that year due to prohibitive costs, potential U.S. intervention, and a preference for unification without force. Beijing persists with gray-zone coercion via frequent PLA aircraft incursions and naval patrols, as seen in Taiwan's recent reports of surged Chinese military activity, prompting Taipei to extend its Han Kuang war games into April and fortify outlying islands like Pratas. While escalation risks linger amid cross-strait rhetoric, no major diplomatic breakthroughs or blockades have emerged in the past 30 days to shift odds significantly.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ET
交易量
$1,512,794結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus reflects an 87.5% implied probability of no military clash in the Taiwan Strait before 2027, anchored by the U.S. Office of the Director of National Intelligence's March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment, which concludes Chinese leaders lack plans for a Taiwan invasion that year due to prohibitive costs, potential U.S. intervention, and a preference for unification without force. Beijing persists with gray-zone coercion via frequent PLA aircraft incursions and naval patrols, as seen in Taiwan's recent reports of surged Chinese military activity, prompting Taipei to extend its Han Kuang war games into April and fortify outlying islands like Pratas. While escalation risks linger amid cross-strait rhetoric, no major diplomatic breakthroughs or blockades have emerged in the past 30 days to shift odds significantly.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$1,512,794結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects an 87.5% implied probability of no military clash in the Taiwan Strait before 2027, anchored by the U.S. Office of the Director of National Intelligence's March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment, which concludes Chinese leaders lack plans for a Taiwan invasion that year due to prohibitive costs, potential U.S. intervention, and a preference for unification without force. Beijing persists with gray-zone coercion via frequent PLA aircraft incursions and naval patrols, as seen in Taiwan's recent reports of surged Chinese military activity, prompting Taipei to extend its Han Kuang war games into April and fortify outlying islands like Pratas. While escalation risks linger amid cross-strait rhetoric, no major diplomatic breakthroughs or blockades have emerged in the past 30 days to shift odds significantly.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions