U.S. intelligence community's March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment concluded China lacks plans for a Taiwan invasion by 2027, preferring unification without force despite ongoing military buildup and PLA exercises in the Taiwan Strait, driving trader consensus to an 86.5% implied probability for no clash. This reassessment, reported widely by WSJ and Reuters, countered earlier fears from Xi Jinping's directives for PLA readiness by 2027 and hawkish rhetoric at China's Two Sessions shifting to vows to "crack down" on separatism. Recent diplomatic signals, including Xi's invitation to Taiwan's opposition leader for peace talks ahead of a potential Trump-Xi summit, reinforce de-escalation. While global conflicts like those in the Middle East could alter dynamics, no major escalations have occurred in the past month.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於是
$1,499,758 交易量
$1,499,758 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$1,499,758 交易量
$1,499,758 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.U.S. intelligence community's March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment concluded China lacks plans for a Taiwan invasion by 2027, preferring unification without force despite ongoing military buildup and PLA exercises in the Taiwan Strait, driving trader consensus to an 86.5% implied probability for no clash. This reassessment, reported widely by WSJ and Reuters, countered earlier fears from Xi Jinping's directives for PLA readiness by 2027 and hawkish rhetoric at China's Two Sessions shifting to vows to "crack down" on separatism. Recent diplomatic signals, including Xi's invitation to Taiwan's opposition leader for peace talks ahead of a potential Trump-Xi summit, reinforce de-escalation. While global conflicts like those in the Middle East could alter dynamics, no major escalations have occurred in the past month.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ET
交易量
$1,499,758結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.U.S. intelligence community's March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment concluded China lacks plans for a Taiwan invasion by 2027, preferring unification without force despite ongoing military buildup and PLA exercises in the Taiwan Strait, driving trader consensus to an 86.5% implied probability for no clash. This reassessment, reported widely by WSJ and Reuters, countered earlier fears from Xi Jinping's directives for PLA readiness by 2027 and hawkish rhetoric at China's Two Sessions shifting to vows to "crack down" on separatism. Recent diplomatic signals, including Xi's invitation to Taiwan's opposition leader for peace talks ahead of a potential Trump-Xi summit, reinforce de-escalation. While global conflicts like those in the Middle East could alter dynamics, no major escalations have occurred in the past month.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$1,499,758結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...U.S. intelligence community's March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment concluded China lacks plans for a Taiwan invasion by 2027, preferring unification without force despite ongoing military buildup and PLA exercises in the Taiwan Strait, driving trader consensus to an 86.5% implied probability for no clash. This reassessment, reported widely by WSJ and Reuters, countered earlier fears from Xi Jinping's directives for PLA readiness by 2027 and hawkish rhetoric at China's Two Sessions shifting to vows to "crack down" on separatism. Recent diplomatic signals, including Xi's invitation to Taiwan's opposition leader for peace talks ahead of a potential Trump-Xi summit, reinforce de-escalation. While global conflicts like those in the Middle East could alter dynamics, no major escalations have occurred in the past month.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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