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地緣政治·臺灣

Lai Ching-te在6月30日之前被彈劾？

Market icon
地緣政治·臺灣

Lai Ching-te在6月30日之前被彈劾？

6月 30

6月 30

是

2% 機率
Polymarket

$10,392 交易量

是

2% 機率
Polymarket

$10,392 交易量

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of Taiwan, Lai Ching-te, is formally impeached by the Legislative Yuan by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the Legislative Yuan propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lai Ching-te, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Taiwanese government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.Taiwan's opposition-led Legislative Yuan, controlled by the Kuomintang (KMT) and Taiwan People's Party (TPP), initiated impeachment proceedings against President Lai Ching-te in late December 2025 over his refusal to promulgate a revised fiscal allocation law, sparking public hearings in mid-January 2026 that Lai skipped. However, trader consensus at 97.7% for "No" reflects the coalition's 62 seats falling short of the 76-seat two-thirds supermajority required to advance impeachment to the Constitutional Court, with the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) firmly blocking passage. No significant developments have occurred since January, underscoring procedural barriers. Realistic shifts would demand unlikely DPP defections or a major scandal before June 30, amid ongoing partisan gridlock.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of Taiwan, Lai Ching-te, is formally impeached by the Legislative Yuan by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the Legislative Yuan propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lai Ching-te, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Taiwanese government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
交易量
$10,392
結束日期
2026-06-30
市場開放時間
Jan 2, 2026, 8:15 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of Taiwan, Lai Ching-te, is formally impeached by the Legislative Yuan by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the Legislative Yuan propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lai Ching-te, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Taiwanese government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of Taiwan, Lai Ching-te, is formally impeached by the Legislative Yuan by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the Legislative Yuan propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lai Ching-te, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Taiwanese government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.Taiwan's opposition-led Legislative Yuan, controlled by the Kuomintang (KMT) and Taiwan People's Party (TPP), initiated impeachment proceedings against President Lai Ching-te in late December 2025 over his refusal to promulgate a revised fiscal allocation law, sparking public hearings in mid-January 2026 that Lai skipped. However, trader consensus at 97.7% for "No" reflects the coalition's 62 seats falling short of the 76-seat two-thirds supermajority required to advance impeachment to the Constitutional Court, with the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) firmly blocking passage. No significant developments have occurred since January, underscoring procedural barriers. Realistic shifts would demand unlikely DPP defections or a major scandal before June 30, amid ongoing partisan gridlock.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of Taiwan, Lai Ching-te, is formally impeached by the Legislative Yuan by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the Legislative Yuan propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lai Ching-te, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Taiwanese government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
交易量
$10,392
結束日期
2026-06-30
市場開放時間
Jan 2, 2026, 8:15 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of Taiwan, Lai Ching-te, is formally impeached by the Legislative Yuan by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the Legislative Yuan propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lai Ching-te, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Taiwanese government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"Lai Ching-te在6月30日之前被彈劾？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "賴清德會在6月30日前被彈劾嗎？" at 2%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 2¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 2% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Lai Ching-te在6月30日之前被彈劾？" has generated $10.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 2, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Lai Ching-te在6月30日之前被彈劾？," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "Lai Ching-te在6月30日之前被彈劾？" is "賴清德會在6月30日前被彈劾嗎？" at just 2%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "Lai Ching-te在6月30日之前被彈劾？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.