Trader consensus reflects near-certainty that the Iranian regime will endure through April 30, driven by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' (IRGC) steadfast loyalty and a swift leadership transition following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death in late February US-Israeli airstrikes. Despite ongoing escalation—including recent strikes on Isfahan on April 1 and regime vows of retaliation—no widespread protests or military defections have materialized, with security forces quelling dissent as reported in early March. Intelligence assessments from Israeli and US sources confirm ground control remains intact, echoing the regime's historical resilience amid sanctions and internal pressures. Realistic shifts could stem from IRGC infighting, total economic breakdown, or a cascade of high-level defections, though these face steep barriers in the short 27-day window.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於伊朗政權會在4月30日前倒臺嗎？
伊朗政權會在4月30日前倒臺嗎？
是
$18,527,630 交易量
$18,527,630 交易量
2026-04-30
是
$18,527,630 交易量
$18,527,630 交易量
2026-04-30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus reflects near-certainty that the Iranian regime will endure through April 30, driven by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' (IRGC) steadfast loyalty and a swift leadership transition following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death in late February US-Israeli airstrikes. Despite ongoing escalation—including recent strikes on Isfahan on April 1 and regime vows of retaliation—no widespread protests or military defections have materialized, with security forces quelling dissent as reported in early March. Intelligence assessments from Israeli and US sources confirm ground control remains intact, echoing the regime's historical resilience amid sanctions and internal pressures. Realistic shifts could stem from IRGC infighting, total economic breakdown, or a cascade of high-level defections, though these face steep barriers in the short 27-day window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Mar 5, 2026, 12:03 PM ET
交易量
$18,527,630結束日期
2026-04-30市場開放時間
Mar 5, 2026, 12:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus reflects near-certainty that the Iranian regime will endure through April 30, driven by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' (IRGC) steadfast loyalty and a swift leadership transition following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death in late February US-Israeli airstrikes. Despite ongoing escalation—including recent strikes on Isfahan on April 1 and regime vows of retaliation—no widespread protests or military defections have materialized, with security forces quelling dissent as reported in early March. Intelligence assessments from Israeli and US sources confirm ground control remains intact, echoing the regime's historical resilience amid sanctions and internal pressures. Realistic shifts could stem from IRGC infighting, total economic breakdown, or a cascade of high-level defections, though these face steep barriers in the short 27-day window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$18,528,578結束日期
2026-04-30市場開放時間
Mar 5, 2026, 12:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects near-certainty that the Iranian regime will endure through April 30, driven by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' (IRGC) steadfast loyalty and a swift leadership transition following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death in late February US-Israeli airstrikes. Despite ongoing escalation—including recent strikes on Isfahan on April 1 and regime vows of retaliation—no widespread protests or military defections have materialized, with security forces quelling dissent as reported in early March. Intelligence assessments from Israeli and US sources confirm ground control remains intact, echoing the regime's historical resilience amid sanctions and internal pressures. Realistic shifts could stem from IRGC infighting, total economic breakdown, or a cascade of high-level defections, though these face steep barriers in the short 27-day window.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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