Exiled opposition leader Reza Pahlavi's recent speeches at CPAC on March 28 and Liberty University on April 1, where he outlined a transitional plan and urged no negotiations with regime holdouts, have not translated into power amid Supreme Leader Khamenei's death in late February. Traders price "No" at 89.8%, reflecting the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps' (IRGC) enduring grip, fragmented domestic opposition, and absence of verified uprisings or military defections enabling his return despite an ongoing internet blackout since early March. Succession jockeying among regime insiders like Mojtaba Khamenei persists, underscoring structural barriers to rapid change; only a major escalation or mass defection could shift consensus before year-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於是
$905,309 交易量
$905,309 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$905,309 交易量
$905,309 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Exiled opposition leader Reza Pahlavi's recent speeches at CPAC on March 28 and Liberty University on April 1, where he outlined a transitional plan and urged no negotiations with regime holdouts, have not translated into power amid Supreme Leader Khamenei's death in late February. Traders price "No" at 89.8%, reflecting the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps' (IRGC) enduring grip, fragmented domestic opposition, and absence of verified uprisings or military defections enabling his return despite an ongoing internet blackout since early March. Succession jockeying among regime insiders like Mojtaba Khamenei persists, underscoring structural barriers to rapid change; only a major escalation or mass defection could shift consensus before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Feb 28, 2026, 10:36 PM ET
交易量
$905,309結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Feb 28, 2026, 10:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Exiled opposition leader Reza Pahlavi's recent speeches at CPAC on March 28 and Liberty University on April 1, where he outlined a transitional plan and urged no negotiations with regime holdouts, have not translated into power amid Supreme Leader Khamenei's death in late February. Traders price "No" at 89.8%, reflecting the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps' (IRGC) enduring grip, fragmented domestic opposition, and absence of verified uprisings or military defections enabling his return despite an ongoing internet blackout since early March. Succession jockeying among regime insiders like Mojtaba Khamenei persists, underscoring structural barriers to rapid change; only a major escalation or mass defection could shift consensus before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$905,309結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Feb 28, 2026, 10:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Exiled opposition leader Reza Pahlavi's recent speeches at CPAC on March 28 and Liberty University on April 1, where he outlined a transitional plan and urged no negotiations with regime holdouts, have not translated into power amid Supreme Leader Khamenei's death in late February. Traders price "No" at 89.8%, reflecting the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps' (IRGC) enduring grip, fragmented domestic opposition, and absence of verified uprisings or military defections enabling his return despite an ongoing internet blackout since early March. Succession jockeying among regime insiders like Mojtaba Khamenei persists, underscoring structural barriers to rapid change; only a major escalation or mass defection could shift consensus before year-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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