Diplomatic expulsions of sitting U.S. ambassadors remain infrequent even during periods of bilateral strain, supporting the current trader consensus reflected in the 75.5% probability for no such action by December 31. Recent frictions, including Canadian officials rejecting calls to declare Ambassador Pete Hoekstra persona non grata amid trade and territorial rhetoric, South African opposition demands that went unheeded, and Hezbollah statements urging Lebanon to act without government follow-through, have not produced formal expulsions. Governments continue to prioritize established diplomatic channels and institutional processes over escalatory measures, consistent with historical patterns where host nations rarely invoke the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations for such steps against U.S. envoys.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
$16,808 交易量
$16,808 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$16,808 交易量
$16,808 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Diplomatic expulsions of sitting U.S. ambassadors remain infrequent even during periods of bilateral strain, supporting the current trader consensus reflected in the 75.5% probability for no such action by December 31. Recent frictions, including Canadian officials rejecting calls to declare Ambassador Pete Hoekstra persona non grata amid trade and territorial rhetoric, South African opposition demands that went unheeded, and Hezbollah statements urging Lebanon to act without government follow-through, have not produced formal expulsions. Governments continue to prioritize established diplomatic channels and institutional processes over escalatory measures, consistent with historical patterns where host nations rarely invoke the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations for such steps against U.S. envoys.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ET
交易量
$16,808結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Diplomatic expulsions of sitting U.S. ambassadors remain infrequent even during periods of bilateral strain, supporting the current trader consensus reflected in the 75.5% probability for no such action by December 31. Recent frictions, including Canadian officials rejecting calls to declare Ambassador Pete Hoekstra persona non grata amid trade and territorial rhetoric, South African opposition demands that went unheeded, and Hezbollah statements urging Lebanon to act without government follow-through, have not produced formal expulsions. Governments continue to prioritize established diplomatic channels and institutional processes over escalatory measures, consistent with historical patterns where host nations rarely invoke the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations for such steps against U.S. envoys.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$16,808結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Diplomatic expulsions of sitting U.S. ambassadors remain infrequent even during periods of bilateral strain, supporting the current trader consensus reflected in the 75.5% probability for no such action by December 31. Recent frictions, including Canadian officials rejecting calls to declare Ambassador Pete Hoekstra persona non grata amid trade and territorial rhetoric, South African opposition demands that went unheeded, and Hezbollah statements urging Lebanon to act without government follow-through, have not produced formal expulsions. Governments continue to prioritize established diplomatic channels and institutional processes over escalatory measures, consistent with historical patterns where host nations rarely invoke the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations for such steps against U.S. envoys.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions