Trader consensus reflects low risk of any country declaring a U.S. ambassador persona non grata by December 31, driven by the absence of escalatory diplomatic breakdowns despite pockets of friction. In mid-March 2026, South Africa's Economic Freedom Fighters called for expelling U.S. Ambassador Leo Brent Bozell over his criticisms of local judiciary and sanctions disputes echoing the U.S. expulsion of Pretoria's envoy in 2025, yet the ANC-led government has rebuffed such moves to preserve bilateral ties. U.S. withdrawals of diplomats from Middle East embassies amid security threats, including suspected Iranian drone strikes on Riyadh, were precautionary evacuations, not host expulsions. Historical rarity of ambassador ejections outside acute crises like espionage or invasion supports the 83% "No" pricing, though sudden foreign policy rifts could shift odds.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於最新
最新
2026-12-31
最新
最新
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus reflects low risk of any country declaring a U.S. ambassador persona non grata by December 31, driven by the absence of escalatory diplomatic breakdowns despite pockets of friction. In mid-March 2026, South Africa's Economic Freedom Fighters called for expelling U.S. Ambassador Leo Brent Bozell over his criticisms of local judiciary and sanctions disputes echoing the U.S. expulsion of Pretoria's envoy in 2025, yet the ANC-led government has rebuffed such moves to preserve bilateral ties. U.S. withdrawals of diplomats from Middle East embassies amid security threats, including suspected Iranian drone strikes on Riyadh, were precautionary evacuations, not host expulsions. Historical rarity of ambassador ejections outside acute crises like espionage or invasion supports the 83% "No" pricing, though sudden foreign policy rifts could shift odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ET
交易量
$105結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus reflects low risk of any country declaring a U.S. ambassador persona non grata by December 31, driven by the absence of escalatory diplomatic breakdowns despite pockets of friction. In mid-March 2026, South Africa's Economic Freedom Fighters called for expelling U.S. Ambassador Leo Brent Bozell over his criticisms of local judiciary and sanctions disputes echoing the U.S. expulsion of Pretoria's envoy in 2025, yet the ANC-led government has rebuffed such moves to preserve bilateral ties. U.S. withdrawals of diplomats from Middle East embassies amid security threats, including suspected Iranian drone strikes on Riyadh, were precautionary evacuations, not host expulsions. Historical rarity of ambassador ejections outside acute crises like espionage or invasion supports the 83% "No" pricing, though sudden foreign policy rifts could shift odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$105結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects low risk of any country declaring a U.S. ambassador persona non grata by December 31, driven by the absence of escalatory diplomatic breakdowns despite pockets of friction. In mid-March 2026, South Africa's Economic Freedom Fighters called for expelling U.S. Ambassador Leo Brent Bozell over his criticisms of local judiciary and sanctions disputes echoing the U.S. expulsion of Pretoria's envoy in 2025, yet the ANC-led government has rebuffed such moves to preserve bilateral ties. U.S. withdrawals of diplomats from Middle East embassies amid security threats, including suspected Iranian drone strikes on Riyadh, were precautionary evacuations, not host expulsions. Historical rarity of ambassador ejections outside acute crises like espionage or invasion supports the 83% "No" pricing, though sudden foreign policy rifts could shift odds.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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