Amid the ongoing US-Iran war sparked by February 2026 strikes killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has consolidated de facto control through a military council, sidelining President Masoud Pezeshkian by blocking key appointments and isolating successor Mojtaba Khamenei under tight security. Reports describe this as a "silent coup," but no violent overthrow attempt has materialized, with prior unrest labeled as failed coups crushed by regime forces. Recent airstrikes injuring advisor Kamal Kharazi and Iranian retaliations have rallied hardliners without fracturing command. Traders' 86.5% "No" consensus reflects IRGC dominance quelling dissent, low odds of further coup attempts by June 30 absent major defections or external shocks.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於是
$345,217 交易量
$345,217 交易量
2026-06-30
是
$345,217 交易量
$345,217 交易量
2026-06-30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Amid the ongoing US-Iran war sparked by February 2026 strikes killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has consolidated de facto control through a military council, sidelining President Masoud Pezeshkian by blocking key appointments and isolating successor Mojtaba Khamenei under tight security. Reports describe this as a "silent coup," but no violent overthrow attempt has materialized, with prior unrest labeled as failed coups crushed by regime forces. Recent airstrikes injuring advisor Kamal Kharazi and Iranian retaliations have rallied hardliners without fracturing command. Traders' 86.5% "No" consensus reflects IRGC dominance quelling dissent, low odds of further coup attempts by June 30 absent major defections or external shocks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
交易量
$345,217結束日期
2026-06-30市場開放時間
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Amid the ongoing US-Iran war sparked by February 2026 strikes killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has consolidated de facto control through a military council, sidelining President Masoud Pezeshkian by blocking key appointments and isolating successor Mojtaba Khamenei under tight security. Reports describe this as a "silent coup," but no violent overthrow attempt has materialized, with prior unrest labeled as failed coups crushed by regime forces. Recent airstrikes injuring advisor Kamal Kharazi and Iranian retaliations have rallied hardliners without fracturing command. Traders' 86.5% "No" consensus reflects IRGC dominance quelling dissent, low odds of further coup attempts by June 30 absent major defections or external shocks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$345,217結束日期
2026-06-30市場開放時間
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid the ongoing US-Iran war sparked by February 2026 strikes killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has consolidated de facto control through a military council, sidelining President Masoud Pezeshkian by blocking key appointments and isolating successor Mojtaba Khamenei under tight security. Reports describe this as a "silent coup," but no violent overthrow attempt has materialized, with prior unrest labeled as failed coups crushed by regime forces. Recent airstrikes injuring advisor Kamal Kharazi and Iranian retaliations have rallied hardliners without fracturing command. Traders' 86.5% "No" consensus reflects IRGC dominance quelling dissent, low odds of further coup attempts by June 30 absent major defections or external shocks.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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