Iran's regime has maintained continuity and control following the February 2026 strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and other senior figures, with rapid appointments favoring Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps influence and no reported fractures among security forces. Ongoing economic pressures and localized protests have prompted increased repression rather than elite defections or organized challenges. The abbreviated window to June 30 leaves minimal time for any faction to mobilize a credible coup attempt amid these dynamics. Trader consensus at 96.5% for no attempt reflects this institutional resilience and historical pattern of suppressing internal threats, though a sudden leadership health crisis or unprecedented protest escalation could theoretically alter conditions before the deadline.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
$1,599,932 交易量
$1,599,932 交易量
2026-06-30
是
$1,599,932 交易量
$1,599,932 交易量
2026-06-30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran's regime has maintained continuity and control following the February 2026 strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and other senior figures, with rapid appointments favoring Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps influence and no reported fractures among security forces. Ongoing economic pressures and localized protests have prompted increased repression rather than elite defections or organized challenges. The abbreviated window to June 30 leaves minimal time for any faction to mobilize a credible coup attempt amid these dynamics. Trader consensus at 96.5% for no attempt reflects this institutional resilience and historical pattern of suppressing internal threats, though a sudden leadership health crisis or unprecedented protest escalation could theoretically alter conditions before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
交易量
$1,599,932結束日期
2026-06-30市場開放時間
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran's regime has maintained continuity and control following the February 2026 strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and other senior figures, with rapid appointments favoring Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps influence and no reported fractures among security forces. Ongoing economic pressures and localized protests have prompted increased repression rather than elite defections or organized challenges. The abbreviated window to June 30 leaves minimal time for any faction to mobilize a credible coup attempt amid these dynamics. Trader consensus at 96.5% for no attempt reflects this institutional resilience and historical pattern of suppressing internal threats, though a sudden leadership health crisis or unprecedented protest escalation could theoretically alter conditions before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$1,599,932結束日期
2026-06-30市場開放時間
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran's regime has maintained continuity and control following the February 2026 strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and other senior figures, with rapid appointments favoring Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps influence and no reported fractures among security forces. Ongoing economic pressures and localized protests have prompted increased repression rather than elite defections or organized challenges. The abbreviated window to June 30 leaves minimal time for any faction to mobilize a credible coup attempt amid these dynamics. Trader consensus at 96.5% for no attempt reflects this institutional resilience and historical pattern of suppressing internal threats, though a sudden leadership health crisis or unprecedented protest escalation could theoretically alter conditions before the deadline.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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