Trader consensus prices a Chinese blockade of Taiwan by June 30 at just 4.5%, driven by the absence of verifiable preparatory indicators despite ongoing PLA military exercises in the Taiwan Strait, including a recent surge of 25 aircraft detected on April 2. US intelligence assessments, such as the ODNI's 2026 threat report released in March, conclude Beijing prefers unification without force and lacks plans for invasion through 2027, emphasizing gray-zone coercion over kinetic action amid massive economic risks exceeding $10 trillion. Routine patrols and late-2025 encirclement drills have normalized without escalation signals. Realistic shifts could stem from sudden political triggers like a Taiwan independence declaration, US distractions such as Middle East conflicts, or unexpected PLA mobilizations, though structural deterrence from Taiwan's defenses and US alliances maintains high confidence in no blockade.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於是
$984,301 交易量
$984,301 交易量
2026-06-30
是
$984,301 交易量
$984,301 交易量
2026-06-30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China (People's Republic of China) announces it has established or otherwise de facto establishes an arial or naval blockade for the territory of Taiwan (Republic of China) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying blockade is:
- Prevents the normal ingress or egress of foreign commercial traffic to or from Taiwan Island’s main ports or airports by threat or use of force for ≥ 24 hours.
- Covers part or whole of the main island of Taiwan (Formosa).
- Is declared and enforced, de facto (e.g., it is established that China is blocking a significant portion of foreign commercial traffic, as described above, by a wide consensus of credible reporting regardless of whether China has issued a statement or not), or China-issued navigation/airspace prohibitions covering Taiwan's main island's approach lanes that are actively enforced so that most foreign commercial access is denied.
A qualifying blockade is not:
- Military or naval exercises or drills (established with warning areas or NOTAMs that do not actively stop third-country ships/aircraft and do not materially deny access).
- Purely economic or coercive measures (e.g., sanctions, customs delays, fishing bans, cyber/GPS jamming) without physical interdiction or enforced closure).
- Weather/accident-related closures or voluntary rerouting by operators absent PRC enforcement.
- Islet-only incidents that do not involve the main island of Taiwan.
- Seizure or inspection of a single vessel/aircraft by itself, unless part of an enforced pattern that denies access as defined above.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices a Chinese blockade of Taiwan by June 30 at just 4.5%, driven by the absence of verifiable preparatory indicators despite ongoing PLA military exercises in the Taiwan Strait, including a recent surge of 25 aircraft detected on April 2. US intelligence assessments, such as the ODNI's 2026 threat report released in March, conclude Beijing prefers unification without force and lacks plans for invasion through 2027, emphasizing gray-zone coercion over kinetic action amid massive economic risks exceeding $10 trillion. Routine patrols and late-2025 encirclement drills have normalized without escalation signals. Realistic shifts could stem from sudden political triggers like a Taiwan independence declaration, US distractions such as Middle East conflicts, or unexpected PLA mobilizations, though structural deterrence from Taiwan's defenses and US alliances maintains high confidence in no blockade.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China (People's Republic of China) announces it has established or otherwise de facto establishes an arial or naval blockade for the territory of Taiwan (Republic of China) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying blockade is:
- Prevents the normal ingress or egress of foreign commercial traffic to or from Taiwan Island’s main ports or airports by threat or use of force for ≥ 24 hours.
- Covers part or whole of the main island of Taiwan (Formosa).
- Is declared and enforced, de facto (e.g., it is established that China is blocking a significant portion of foreign commercial traffic, as described above, by a wide consensus of credible reporting regardless of whether China has issued a statement or not), or China-issued navigation/airspace prohibitions covering Taiwan's main island's approach lanes that are actively enforced so that most foreign commercial access is denied.
A qualifying blockade is not:
- Military or naval exercises or drills (established with warning areas or NOTAMs that do not actively stop third-country ships/aircraft and do not materially deny access).
- Purely economic or coercive measures (e.g., sanctions, customs delays, fishing bans, cyber/GPS jamming) without physical interdiction or enforced closure).
- Weather/accident-related closures or voluntary rerouting by operators absent PRC enforcement.
- Islet-only incidents that do not involve the main island of Taiwan.
- Seizure or inspection of a single vessel/aircraft by itself, unless part of an enforced pattern that denies access as defined above.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying blockade is:
- Prevents the normal ingress or egress of foreign commercial traffic to or from Taiwan Island’s main ports or airports by threat or use of force for ≥ 24 hours.
- Covers part or whole of the main island of Taiwan (Formosa).
- Is declared and enforced, de facto (e.g., it is established that China is blocking a significant portion of foreign commercial traffic, as described above, by a wide consensus of credible reporting regardless of whether China has issued a statement or not), or China-issued navigation/airspace prohibitions covering Taiwan's main island's approach lanes that are actively enforced so that most foreign commercial access is denied.
A qualifying blockade is not:
- Military or naval exercises or drills (established with warning areas or NOTAMs that do not actively stop third-country ships/aircraft and do not materially deny access).
- Purely economic or coercive measures (e.g., sanctions, customs delays, fishing bans, cyber/GPS jamming) without physical interdiction or enforced closure).
- Weather/accident-related closures or voluntary rerouting by operators absent PRC enforcement.
- Islet-only incidents that do not involve the main island of Taiwan.
- Seizure or inspection of a single vessel/aircraft by itself, unless part of an enforced pattern that denies access as defined above.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Sep 19, 2025, 3:09 PM ET
交易量
$984,301結束日期
2026-06-30市場開放時間
Sep 19, 2025, 3:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China (People's Republic of China) announces it has established or otherwise de facto establishes an arial or naval blockade for the territory of Taiwan (Republic of China) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying blockade is:
- Prevents the normal ingress or egress of foreign commercial traffic to or from Taiwan Island’s main ports or airports by threat or use of force for ≥ 24 hours.
- Covers part or whole of the main island of Taiwan (Formosa).
- Is declared and enforced, de facto (e.g., it is established that China is blocking a significant portion of foreign commercial traffic, as described above, by a wide consensus of credible reporting regardless of whether China has issued a statement or not), or China-issued navigation/airspace prohibitions covering Taiwan's main island's approach lanes that are actively enforced so that most foreign commercial access is denied.
A qualifying blockade is not:
- Military or naval exercises or drills (established with warning areas or NOTAMs that do not actively stop third-country ships/aircraft and do not materially deny access).
- Purely economic or coercive measures (e.g., sanctions, customs delays, fishing bans, cyber/GPS jamming) without physical interdiction or enforced closure).
- Weather/accident-related closures or voluntary rerouting by operators absent PRC enforcement.
- Islet-only incidents that do not involve the main island of Taiwan.
- Seizure or inspection of a single vessel/aircraft by itself, unless part of an enforced pattern that denies access as defined above.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices a Chinese blockade of Taiwan by June 30 at just 4.5%, driven by the absence of verifiable preparatory indicators despite ongoing PLA military exercises in the Taiwan Strait, including a recent surge of 25 aircraft detected on April 2. US intelligence assessments, such as the ODNI's 2026 threat report released in March, conclude Beijing prefers unification without force and lacks plans for invasion through 2027, emphasizing gray-zone coercion over kinetic action amid massive economic risks exceeding $10 trillion. Routine patrols and late-2025 encirclement drills have normalized without escalation signals. Realistic shifts could stem from sudden political triggers like a Taiwan independence declaration, US distractions such as Middle East conflicts, or unexpected PLA mobilizations, though structural deterrence from Taiwan's defenses and US alliances maintains high confidence in no blockade.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China (People's Republic of China) announces it has established or otherwise de facto establishes an arial or naval blockade for the territory of Taiwan (Republic of China) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying blockade is:
- Prevents the normal ingress or egress of foreign commercial traffic to or from Taiwan Island’s main ports or airports by threat or use of force for ≥ 24 hours.
- Covers part or whole of the main island of Taiwan (Formosa).
- Is declared and enforced, de facto (e.g., it is established that China is blocking a significant portion of foreign commercial traffic, as described above, by a wide consensus of credible reporting regardless of whether China has issued a statement or not), or China-issued navigation/airspace prohibitions covering Taiwan's main island's approach lanes that are actively enforced so that most foreign commercial access is denied.
A qualifying blockade is not:
- Military or naval exercises or drills (established with warning areas or NOTAMs that do not actively stop third-country ships/aircraft and do not materially deny access).
- Purely economic or coercive measures (e.g., sanctions, customs delays, fishing bans, cyber/GPS jamming) without physical interdiction or enforced closure).
- Weather/accident-related closures or voluntary rerouting by operators absent PRC enforcement.
- Islet-only incidents that do not involve the main island of Taiwan.
- Seizure or inspection of a single vessel/aircraft by itself, unless part of an enforced pattern that denies access as defined above.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying blockade is:
- Prevents the normal ingress or egress of foreign commercial traffic to or from Taiwan Island’s main ports or airports by threat or use of force for ≥ 24 hours.
- Covers part or whole of the main island of Taiwan (Formosa).
- Is declared and enforced, de facto (e.g., it is established that China is blocking a significant portion of foreign commercial traffic, as described above, by a wide consensus of credible reporting regardless of whether China has issued a statement or not), or China-issued navigation/airspace prohibitions covering Taiwan's main island's approach lanes that are actively enforced so that most foreign commercial access is denied.
A qualifying blockade is not:
- Military or naval exercises or drills (established with warning areas or NOTAMs that do not actively stop third-country ships/aircraft and do not materially deny access).
- Purely economic or coercive measures (e.g., sanctions, customs delays, fishing bans, cyber/GPS jamming) without physical interdiction or enforced closure).
- Weather/accident-related closures or voluntary rerouting by operators absent PRC enforcement.
- Islet-only incidents that do not involve the main island of Taiwan.
- Seizure or inspection of a single vessel/aircraft by itself, unless part of an enforced pattern that denies access as defined above.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$984,301結束日期
2026-06-30市場開放時間
Sep 19, 2025, 3:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a Chinese blockade of Taiwan by June 30 at just 4.5%, driven by the absence of verifiable preparatory indicators despite ongoing PLA military exercises in the Taiwan Strait, including a recent surge of 25 aircraft detected on April 2. US intelligence assessments, such as the ODNI's 2026 threat report released in March, conclude Beijing prefers unification without force and lacks plans for invasion through 2027, emphasizing gray-zone coercion over kinetic action amid massive economic risks exceeding $10 trillion. Routine patrols and late-2025 encirclement drills have normalized without escalation signals. Realistic shifts could stem from sudden political triggers like a Taiwan independence declaration, US distractions such as Middle East conflicts, or unexpected PLA mobilizations, though structural deterrence from Taiwan's defenses and US alliances maintains high confidence in no blockade.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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