Recent warship near-miss between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea on March 30 prompted mutual accusations of unsafe maneuvers but no escalation to armed confrontation, reinforcing trader consensus at 78% for no military clash before 2027. Ongoing grey-zone tactics—China Coast Guard water cannon use, vessel ramming, radar locks on Philippine ships near Sabina and Ayungin Shoals, and harassment of fishing boats in late March—have intensified since October 2025 collisions at Thitu Island, yet both sides maintain restraint via coast guard and maritime militia rather than PLA Navy combat. High-level bilateral talks, U.S. defense commitments under mutual treaty obligations, and historical de-escalation patterns amid energy leverage dynamics sustain low escalation risks despite persistent territorial disputes.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於是
$209,144 交易量
$209,144 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$209,144 交易量
$209,144 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent warship near-miss between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea on March 30 prompted mutual accusations of unsafe maneuvers but no escalation to armed confrontation, reinforcing trader consensus at 78% for no military clash before 2027. Ongoing grey-zone tactics—China Coast Guard water cannon use, vessel ramming, radar locks on Philippine ships near Sabina and Ayungin Shoals, and harassment of fishing boats in late March—have intensified since October 2025 collisions at Thitu Island, yet both sides maintain restraint via coast guard and maritime militia rather than PLA Navy combat. High-level bilateral talks, U.S. defense commitments under mutual treaty obligations, and historical de-escalation patterns amid energy leverage dynamics sustain low escalation risks despite persistent territorial disputes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Nov 13, 2025, 5:56 PM ET
交易量
$209,144結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 13, 2025, 5:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent warship near-miss between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea on March 30 prompted mutual accusations of unsafe maneuvers but no escalation to armed confrontation, reinforcing trader consensus at 78% for no military clash before 2027. Ongoing grey-zone tactics—China Coast Guard water cannon use, vessel ramming, radar locks on Philippine ships near Sabina and Ayungin Shoals, and harassment of fishing boats in late March—have intensified since October 2025 collisions at Thitu Island, yet both sides maintain restraint via coast guard and maritime militia rather than PLA Navy combat. High-level bilateral talks, U.S. defense commitments under mutual treaty obligations, and historical de-escalation patterns amid energy leverage dynamics sustain low escalation risks despite persistent territorial disputes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$209,144結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 13, 2025, 5:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent warship near-miss between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea on March 30 prompted mutual accusations of unsafe maneuvers but no escalation to armed confrontation, reinforcing trader consensus at 78% for no military clash before 2027. Ongoing grey-zone tactics—China Coast Guard water cannon use, vessel ramming, radar locks on Philippine ships near Sabina and Ayungin Shoals, and harassment of fishing boats in late March—have intensified since October 2025 collisions at Thitu Island, yet both sides maintain restraint via coast guard and maritime militia rather than PLA Navy combat. High-level bilateral talks, U.S. defense commitments under mutual treaty obligations, and historical de-escalation patterns amid energy leverage dynamics sustain low escalation risks despite persistent territorial disputes.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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