Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 83.5% implied probability that Pierre Poilievre will remain leader of Canada's Conservative Party through December 31, 2026, driven primarily by his resounding victory in the party's mandatory January 31, 2026, leadership review, where he secured over 87% support from delegates despite the Conservatives' federal election loss the prior year. This outcome quelled immediate internal dissent following the defeat, including MP resignations and floor-crossings to the Liberals. Recent developments, such as Poilievre's April 2 news conference urging MPs to prove their value—drawing some backlash—and a rival dropping a nomination bid in his former Carleton riding, signal ongoing tensions but no active leadership challenge. With the next federal election not due until 2029, traders see limited near-term risks to his position barring scandals or polling collapses.