The near-certain market consensus against Alberta joining the United States stems from the complete absence of any formal proposal, constitutional pathway, or meaningful public support for annexation, even as the province prepares for an October 19, 2026, referendum on whether to begin the legal process for a future binding vote on separation from Canada. Premier Danielle Smith has emphasized greater provincial autonomy within the federation, while polls place independence support at roughly 19-27 percent and explicit interest in U.S. statehood remains a fringe position distinct from the organized separatist campaign. Legal obstacles, including court rulings on treaty rights with First Nations and the multi-step requirements under the Canadian Constitution, further reinforce the barriers. Realistic scenarios that could still shift probabilities include a decisive pro-independence outcome triggering negotiations with Washington or a sharp escalation in federal-provincial tensions that elevates external options.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於<1% 機率
$2,191,975 交易量
$2,191,975 交易量
2026-12-31
<1% 機率
$2,191,975 交易量
$2,191,975 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, or if Alberta officially comes under US sovereignty, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Alberta as of February 6, 2026, currently a Canadian province, to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system.
An official announcement made by the United States and Canada that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, within this market's timeframe, will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. a ratified treaty, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere suggestions, negotiations, or posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Canada, and Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Alberta has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.The near-certain market consensus against Alberta joining the United States stems from the complete absence of any formal proposal, constitutional pathway, or meaningful public support for annexation, even as the province prepares for an October 19, 2026, referendum on whether to begin the legal process for a future binding vote on separation from Canada. Premier Danielle Smith has emphasized greater provincial autonomy within the federation, while polls place independence support at roughly 19-27 percent and explicit interest in U.S. statehood remains a fringe position distinct from the organized separatist campaign. Legal obstacles, including court rulings on treaty rights with First Nations and the multi-step requirements under the Canadian Constitution, further reinforce the barriers. Realistic scenarios that could still shift probabilities include a decisive pro-independence outcome triggering negotiations with Washington or a sharp escalation in federal-provincial tensions that elevates external options.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, or if Alberta officially comes under US sovereignty, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Alberta as of February 6, 2026, currently a Canadian province, to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system.
An official announcement made by the United States and Canada that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, within this market's timeframe, will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. a ratified treaty, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere suggestions, negotiations, or posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Canada, and Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Alberta has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.
Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Alberta as of February 6, 2026, currently a Canadian province, to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system.
An official announcement made by the United States and Canada that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, within this market's timeframe, will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. a ratified treaty, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere suggestions, negotiations, or posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Canada, and Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Alberta has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.
市場開放時間： Feb 6, 2026, 5:03 PM ET
交易量
$2,191,975結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Feb 6, 2026, 5:03 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, or if Alberta officially comes under US sovereignty, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Alberta as of February 6, 2026, currently a Canadian province, to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system.
An official announcement made by the United States and Canada that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, within this market's timeframe, will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. a ratified treaty, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere suggestions, negotiations, or posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Canada, and Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Alberta has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.The near-certain market consensus against Alberta joining the United States stems from the complete absence of any formal proposal, constitutional pathway, or meaningful public support for annexation, even as the province prepares for an October 19, 2026, referendum on whether to begin the legal process for a future binding vote on separation from Canada. Premier Danielle Smith has emphasized greater provincial autonomy within the federation, while polls place independence support at roughly 19-27 percent and explicit interest in U.S. statehood remains a fringe position distinct from the organized separatist campaign. Legal obstacles, including court rulings on treaty rights with First Nations and the multi-step requirements under the Canadian Constitution, further reinforce the barriers. Realistic scenarios that could still shift probabilities include a decisive pro-independence outcome triggering negotiations with Washington or a sharp escalation in federal-provincial tensions that elevates external options.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, or if Alberta officially comes under US sovereignty, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Alberta as of February 6, 2026, currently a Canadian province, to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system.
An official announcement made by the United States and Canada that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, within this market's timeframe, will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. a ratified treaty, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere suggestions, negotiations, or posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Canada, and Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Alberta has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.
Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Alberta as of February 6, 2026, currently a Canadian province, to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system.
An official announcement made by the United States and Canada that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, within this market's timeframe, will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. a ratified treaty, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere suggestions, negotiations, or posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Canada, and Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Alberta has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.
交易量
$2,191,975結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Feb 6, 2026, 5:03 PM ETThe near-certain market consensus against Alberta joining the United States stems from the complete absence of any formal proposal, constitutional pathway, or meaningful public support for annexation, even as the province prepares for an October 19, 2026, referendum on whether to begin the legal process for a future binding vote on separation from Canada. Premier Danielle Smith has emphasized greater provincial autonomy within the federation, while polls place independence support at roughly 19-27 percent and explicit interest in U.S. statehood remains a fringe position distinct from the organized separatist campaign. Legal obstacles, including court rulings on treaty rights with First Nations and the multi-step requirements under the Canadian Constitution, further reinforce the barriers. Realistic scenarios that could still shift probabilities include a decisive pro-independence outcome triggering negotiations with Washington or a sharp escalation in federal-provincial tensions that elevates external options.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions