Trader consensus prices "No" at 95.3% for Alberta joining the United States, reflecting formidable constitutional, political, and procedural barriers under Canada's Clarity Act, which requires a clear referendum question, substantial majority support, and federal negotiations for any secession—let alone U.S. statehood needing Congressional approval. Recent separatist petitions from groups like Stay Free Alberta claim to have surpassed the 177,732-signature threshold for an October independence referendum, but a February Abacus Data poll shows only minority support around 18%, with Premier Danielle Smith rejecting U.S. statehood while prioritizing fights within Canada over federal policies like carbon taxes. Absent a seismic polling surge, elite endorsements, or federal collapse, these structural hurdles sustain high confidence against the outcome.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於最新
最新
2026-12-31
最新
最新
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, or if Alberta officially comes under US sovereignty, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Alberta as of February 6, 2026, currently a Canadian province, to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system.
An official announcement made by the United States and Canada that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, within this market's timeframe, will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. a ratified treaty, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere suggestions, negotiations, or posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Canada, and Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Alberta has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.Trader consensus prices "No" at 95.3% for Alberta joining the United States, reflecting formidable constitutional, political, and procedural barriers under Canada's Clarity Act, which requires a clear referendum question, substantial majority support, and federal negotiations for any secession—let alone U.S. statehood needing Congressional approval. Recent separatist petitions from groups like Stay Free Alberta claim to have surpassed the 177,732-signature threshold for an October independence referendum, but a February Abacus Data poll shows only minority support around 18%, with Premier Danielle Smith rejecting U.S. statehood while prioritizing fights within Canada over federal policies like carbon taxes. Absent a seismic polling surge, elite endorsements, or federal collapse, these structural hurdles sustain high confidence against the outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, or if Alberta officially comes under US sovereignty, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Alberta as of February 6, 2026, currently a Canadian province, to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system.
An official announcement made by the United States and Canada that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, within this market's timeframe, will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. a ratified treaty, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere suggestions, negotiations, or posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Canada, and Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Alberta has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.
Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Alberta as of February 6, 2026, currently a Canadian province, to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system.
An official announcement made by the United States and Canada that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, within this market's timeframe, will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. a ratified treaty, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere suggestions, negotiations, or posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Canada, and Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Alberta has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.
市場開放時間： Feb 6, 2026, 5:03 PM ET
交易量
$2,016結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Feb 6, 2026, 5:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, or if Alberta officially comes under US sovereignty, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Alberta as of February 6, 2026, currently a Canadian province, to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system.
An official announcement made by the United States and Canada that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, within this market's timeframe, will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. a ratified treaty, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere suggestions, negotiations, or posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Canada, and Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Alberta has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.Trader consensus prices "No" at 95.3% for Alberta joining the United States, reflecting formidable constitutional, political, and procedural barriers under Canada's Clarity Act, which requires a clear referendum question, substantial majority support, and federal negotiations for any secession—let alone U.S. statehood needing Congressional approval. Recent separatist petitions from groups like Stay Free Alberta claim to have surpassed the 177,732-signature threshold for an October independence referendum, but a February Abacus Data poll shows only minority support around 18%, with Premier Danielle Smith rejecting U.S. statehood while prioritizing fights within Canada over federal policies like carbon taxes. Absent a seismic polling surge, elite endorsements, or federal collapse, these structural hurdles sustain high confidence against the outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, or if Alberta officially comes under US sovereignty, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Alberta as of February 6, 2026, currently a Canadian province, to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system.
An official announcement made by the United States and Canada that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, within this market's timeframe, will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. a ratified treaty, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere suggestions, negotiations, or posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Canada, and Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Alberta has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.
Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Alberta as of February 6, 2026, currently a Canadian province, to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system.
An official announcement made by the United States and Canada that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, within this market's timeframe, will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. a ratified treaty, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere suggestions, negotiations, or posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Canada, and Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Alberta has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.
交易量
$2,016結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Feb 6, 2026, 5:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 95.3% for Alberta joining the United States, reflecting formidable constitutional, political, and procedural barriers under Canada's Clarity Act, which requires a clear referendum question, substantial majority support, and federal negotiations for any secession—let alone U.S. statehood needing Congressional approval. Recent separatist petitions from groups like Stay Free Alberta claim to have surpassed the 177,732-signature threshold for an October independence referendum, but a February Abacus Data poll shows only minority support around 18%, with Premier Danielle Smith rejecting U.S. statehood while prioritizing fights within Canada over federal policies like carbon taxes. Absent a seismic polling surge, elite endorsements, or federal collapse, these structural hurdles sustain high confidence against the outcome.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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