Ongoing indirect US-Iran negotiations mediated by Pakistan have stalled without a comprehensive peace agreement, following the collapse of marathon talks in Islamabad on April 12 after 21 hours of discussions. The fragile two-week ceasefire announced on April 7—set to expire around April 21—remains in effect amid US naval enforcement in the Strait of Hormuz and Iran's reimposed maritime restrictions, heightening escalation risks if no extension is reached. Sticking points include Iran's nuclear enrichment limits, sanctions relief, and safe passage guarantees, complicated by Israel's parallel operations in Lebanon. Traders weigh these diplomatic impasses against President Trump's deadlines and historical patterns of protracted US-Iran tensions, with no verified path to a permanent deal evident in recent developments. Upcoming mediator shuttles could shift dynamics, though major gaps persist.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$17,498,010 交易量
2026-04-22
4月22日
20%
4月30日
40%
5月31日
59%
6月30日
68%
$17,498,010 交易量
4月22日
$10,471,671 交易量
20%
4月30日
$4,086,437 交易量
40%
5月31日
$2,151,013 交易量
59%
6月30日
$790,082 交易量
68%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing indirect US-Iran negotiations mediated by Pakistan have stalled without a comprehensive peace agreement, following the collapse of marathon talks in Islamabad on April 12 after 21 hours of discussions. The fragile two-week ceasefire announced on April 7—set to expire around April 21—remains in effect amid US naval enforcement in the Strait of Hormuz and Iran's reimposed maritime restrictions, heightening escalation risks if no extension is reached. Sticking points include Iran's nuclear enrichment limits, sanctions relief, and safe passage guarantees, complicated by Israel's parallel operations in Lebanon. Traders weigh these diplomatic impasses against President Trump's deadlines and historical patterns of protracted US-Iran tensions, with no verified path to a permanent deal evident in recent developments. Upcoming mediator shuttles could shift dynamics, though major gaps persist.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Apr 8, 2026, 12:11 PM ET
交易量
$17,498,010結束日期
2026-05-31市場開放時間
Apr 8, 2026, 12:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing indirect US-Iran negotiations mediated by Pakistan have stalled without a comprehensive peace agreement, following the collapse of marathon talks in Islamabad on April 12 after 21 hours of discussions. The fragile two-week ceasefire announced on April 7—set to expire around April 21—remains in effect amid US naval enforcement in the Strait of Hormuz and Iran's reimposed maritime restrictions, heightening escalation risks if no extension is reached. Sticking points include Iran's nuclear enrichment limits, sanctions relief, and safe passage guarantees, complicated by Israel's parallel operations in Lebanon. Traders weigh these diplomatic impasses against President Trump's deadlines and historical patterns of protracted US-Iran tensions, with no verified path to a permanent deal evident in recent developments. Upcoming mediator shuttles could shift dynamics, though major gaps persist.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$17,498,010結束日期
2026-05-31市場開放時間
Apr 8, 2026, 12:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing indirect US-Iran negotiations mediated by Pakistan have stalled without a comprehensive peace agreement, following the collapse of marathon talks in Islamabad on April 12 after 21 hours of discussions. The fragile two-week ceasefire announced on April 7—set to expire around April 21—remains in effect amid US naval enforcement in the Strait of Hormuz and Iran's reimposed maritime restrictions, heightening escalation risks if no extension is reached. Sticking points include Iran's nuclear enrichment limits, sanctions relief, and safe passage guarantees, complicated by Israel's parallel operations in Lebanon. Traders weigh these diplomatic impasses against President Trump's deadlines and historical patterns of protracted US-Iran tensions, with no verified path to a permanent deal evident in recent developments. Upcoming mediator shuttles could shift dynamics, though major gaps persist.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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