US-brokered talks produced a renewed ceasefire agreement on June 3, 2026, that included pilot security zones restricting Hezbollah operations in southern Lebanon, but Hezbollah rejected the terms the next day and demanded full Israeli withdrawal. Renewed cross-border rocket fire, drone attacks, and Israeli strikes on Hezbollah targets in Beirut and the south followed immediately, including operations as recently as June 14. These developments occur alongside separate US diplomatic efforts involving Iran and broader regional de-escalation. A permanent peace deal would require Hezbollah acceptance of security arrangements, Lebanese government enforcement, and verified cessation of hostilities, conditions that remain unmet amid ongoing military activity and divergent demands from the parties.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$4,391,359 交易量
2026-06-15
June 15
8%
June 30
19%
7月31日
46%
$4,391,359 交易量
June 15
$1,252,917 交易量
8%
June 30
$1,429,308 交易量
19%
7月31日
$3,261 交易量
46%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Hezbollah agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.US-brokered talks produced a renewed ceasefire agreement on June 3, 2026, that included pilot security zones restricting Hezbollah operations in southern Lebanon, but Hezbollah rejected the terms the next day and demanded full Israeli withdrawal. Renewed cross-border rocket fire, drone attacks, and Israeli strikes on Hezbollah targets in Beirut and the south followed immediately, including operations as recently as June 14. These developments occur alongside separate US diplomatic efforts involving Iran and broader regional de-escalation. A permanent peace deal would require Hezbollah acceptance of security arrangements, Lebanese government enforcement, and verified cessation of hostilities, conditions that remain unmet amid ongoing military activity and divergent demands from the parties.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Hezbollah agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： May 25, 2026, 11:16 AM ET
交易量
$4,391,359結束日期
2026-05-31市場開放時間
May 25, 2026, 11:16 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Hezbollah agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.US-brokered talks produced a renewed ceasefire agreement on June 3, 2026, that included pilot security zones restricting Hezbollah operations in southern Lebanon, but Hezbollah rejected the terms the next day and demanded full Israeli withdrawal. Renewed cross-border rocket fire, drone attacks, and Israeli strikes on Hezbollah targets in Beirut and the south followed immediately, including operations as recently as June 14. These developments occur alongside separate US diplomatic efforts involving Iran and broader regional de-escalation. A permanent peace deal would require Hezbollah acceptance of security arrangements, Lebanese government enforcement, and verified cessation of hostilities, conditions that remain unmet amid ongoing military activity and divergent demands from the parties.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Hezbollah agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$4,391,359結束日期
2026-05-31市場開放時間
May 25, 2026, 11:16 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US-brokered talks produced a renewed ceasefire agreement on June 3, 2026, that included pilot security zones restricting Hezbollah operations in southern Lebanon, but Hezbollah rejected the terms the next day and demanded full Israeli withdrawal. Renewed cross-border rocket fire, drone attacks, and Israeli strikes on Hezbollah targets in Beirut and the south followed immediately, including operations as recently as June 14. These developments occur alongside separate US diplomatic efforts involving Iran and broader regional de-escalation. A permanent peace deal would require Hezbollah acceptance of security arrangements, Lebanese government enforcement, and verified cessation of hostilities, conditions that remain unmet amid ongoing military activity and divergent demands from the parties.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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