Market icon
世界·加拿大

在6月30日之前召開另一次加拿大選舉？

Market icon
世界·加拿大

在6月30日之前召開另一次加拿大選舉？

是

5% 機率
Polymarket

$72,755 交易量

是

5% 機率
Polymarket

$72,755 交易量

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Canadian federal election is officially scheduled for a date prior to October 2029, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. (e.g. if on December 23, 2025 an election is scheduled for November 23, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes"). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the Canada, However a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Mark Carney's minority Liberal government, elected in the April 2025 federal election, has maintained stability after narrowly surviving multiple confidence votes on its fall budget in November 2025, bolstered by opposition abstentions and cross-aisle support. Recent polling averages show Liberals holding a comfortable lead over Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives amid economic pressures from U.S. trade tensions, reducing incentives for a snap election call. With no active no-confidence motions or parliamentary crises in recent weeks, and the fixed election date set for October 2029 under the Canada Elections Act, traders' 95% consensus on "No" reflects the low near-term risk of House dissolution by June 30 despite minority dynamics.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Canadian federal election is officially scheduled for a date prior to October 2029, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. (e.g. if on December 23, 2025 an election is scheduled for November 23, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes").

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the Canada, However a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$72,755
結束日期
2026-06-30
市場開放時間
Nov 24, 2025, 3:34 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Canadian federal election is officially scheduled for a date prior to October 2029, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. (e.g. if on December 23, 2025 an election is scheduled for November 23, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes"). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the Canada, However a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Canadian federal election is officially scheduled for a date prior to October 2029, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. (e.g. if on December 23, 2025 an election is scheduled for November 23, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes"). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the Canada, However a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Mark Carney's minority Liberal government, elected in the April 2025 federal election, has maintained stability after narrowly surviving multiple confidence votes on its fall budget in November 2025, bolstered by opposition abstentions and cross-aisle support. Recent polling averages show Liberals holding a comfortable lead over Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives amid economic pressures from U.S. trade tensions, reducing incentives for a snap election call. With no active no-confidence motions or parliamentary crises in recent weeks, and the fixed election date set for October 2029 under the Canada Elections Act, traders' 95% consensus on "No" reflects the low near-term risk of House dissolution by June 30 despite minority dynamics.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Canadian federal election is officially scheduled for a date prior to October 2029, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. (e.g. if on December 23, 2025 an election is scheduled for November 23, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes").

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the Canada, However a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$72,755
結束日期
2026-06-30
市場開放時間
Nov 24, 2025, 3:34 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Canadian federal election is officially scheduled for a date prior to October 2029, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. (e.g. if on December 23, 2025 an election is scheduled for November 23, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes"). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the Canada, However a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"在6月30日之前召開另一次加拿大選舉？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "另一場加拿大選舉會在6月30日之前宣布嗎？" at 5%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 5¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 5% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "在6月30日之前召開另一次加拿大選舉？" has generated $72.8K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 24, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "在6月30日之前召開另一次加拿大選舉？," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "在6月30日之前召開另一次加拿大選舉？" is "另一場加拿大選舉會在6月30日之前宣布嗎？" at just 5%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "在6月30日之前召開另一次加拿大選舉？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.