Market icon
世界·加拿大

在6月30日之前召開另一次加拿大選舉？

Market icon
世界·加拿大

在6月30日之前召開另一次加拿大選舉？

是

5% 機率
Polymarket

$72,741 交易量

是

5% 機率
Polymarket

$72,741 交易量

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Canadian federal election is officially scheduled for a date prior to October 2029, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. (e.g. if on December 23, 2025 an election is scheduled for November 23, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes"). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the Canada, However a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Prime Minister Mark Carney's Liberal minority government, elected in April 2025 with 169 House of Commons seats just shy of a majority, has solidified its position through multiple opposition floor-crossings and survived key confidence votes on budgets in late 2025 and February 2026. Recent polls show Liberals leading Conservatives by 8–12 points amid Carney's high approval ratings, diminishing incentives for Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre to table a no-confidence motion. Three byelections called for April 13 could deliver a working majority, while Carney has ruled out proroguing Parliament or a spring snap election. With no immediate threats to stability, traders price negligible odds of another federal election by June 30.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Canadian federal election is officially scheduled for a date prior to October 2029, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. (e.g. if on December 23, 2025 an election is scheduled for November 23, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes").

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the Canada, However a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$72,741
結束日期
2026-06-30
市場開放時間
Nov 24, 2025, 3:34 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Canadian federal election is officially scheduled for a date prior to October 2029, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. (e.g. if on December 23, 2025 an election is scheduled for November 23, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes"). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the Canada, However a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Canadian federal election is officially scheduled for a date prior to October 2029, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. (e.g. if on December 23, 2025 an election is scheduled for November 23, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes"). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the Canada, However a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Prime Minister Mark Carney's Liberal minority government, elected in April 2025 with 169 House of Commons seats just shy of a majority, has solidified its position through multiple opposition floor-crossings and survived key confidence votes on budgets in late 2025 and February 2026. Recent polls show Liberals leading Conservatives by 8–12 points amid Carney's high approval ratings, diminishing incentives for Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre to table a no-confidence motion. Three byelections called for April 13 could deliver a working majority, while Carney has ruled out proroguing Parliament or a spring snap election. With no immediate threats to stability, traders price negligible odds of another federal election by June 30.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Canadian federal election is officially scheduled for a date prior to October 2029, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. (e.g. if on December 23, 2025 an election is scheduled for November 23, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes").

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the Canada, However a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$72,741
結束日期
2026-06-30
市場開放時間
Nov 24, 2025, 3:34 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Canadian federal election is officially scheduled for a date prior to October 2029, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. (e.g. if on December 23, 2025 an election is scheduled for November 23, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes"). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the Canada, However a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"在6月30日之前召開另一次加拿大選舉？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "另一場加拿大選舉會在6月30日之前宣布嗎？" at 5%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 5¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 5% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "在6月30日之前召開另一次加拿大選舉？" has generated $72.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 24, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "在6月30日之前召開另一次加拿大選舉？," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "在6月30日之前召開另一次加拿大選舉？" is "另一場加拿大選舉會在6月30日之前宣布嗎？" at just 5%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "在6月30日之前召開另一次加拿大選舉？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.