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Canada's population Up or Down this year?

Market icon

Canada's population Up or Down this year?

Up

31% 機率
Polymarket
最新

Up

31% 機率
Polymarket
最新
This market will resolve to "Up" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025. This market will resolve to "Down" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is less than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025. If the population in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the population in the 4th quarter of 2026 are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the relevant quarterly population estimate release is not available by April 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start). Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Statistics Canada's March 18 release of Q1 2026 estimates shows Canada's population fell to 41.47 million on January 1, down 103,504 from Q4 2025—the first annual decline on record since World War II—driven by a sharp drop in non-permanent residents amid housing pressures and policy shifts. The government's November 2025 Immigration Levels Plan caps permanent resident admissions at 380,000 for 2026 while slashing new temporary resident arrivals to 385,000, a 43% cut from prior peaks. The Parliamentary Budget Officer's February projection of zero growth reinforces trader consensus at 65.5% for "Down," as low natural increase fails to offset emigration and reduced inflows, with Q2 estimates due next month potentially confirming the trend.

This market will resolve to "Up" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.

This market will resolve to "Down" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is less than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.

If the population in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the population in the 4th quarter of 2026 are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50.

If the relevant quarterly population estimate release is not available by April 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.

The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).

Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$1,401
結束日期
2027-04-30
市場開放時間
Jan 27, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Up" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025. This market will resolve to "Down" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is less than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025. If the population in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the population in the 4th quarter of 2026 are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the relevant quarterly population estimate release is not available by April 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start). Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
This market will resolve to "Up" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025. This market will resolve to "Down" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is less than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025. If the population in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the population in the 4th quarter of 2026 are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the relevant quarterly population estimate release is not available by April 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start). Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Statistics Canada's March 18 release of Q1 2026 estimates shows Canada's population fell to 41.47 million on January 1, down 103,504 from Q4 2025—the first annual decline on record since World War II—driven by a sharp drop in non-permanent residents amid housing pressures and policy shifts. The government's November 2025 Immigration Levels Plan caps permanent resident admissions at 380,000 for 2026 while slashing new temporary resident arrivals to 385,000, a 43% cut from prior peaks. The Parliamentary Budget Officer's February projection of zero growth reinforces trader consensus at 65.5% for "Down," as low natural increase fails to offset emigration and reduced inflows, with Q2 estimates due next month potentially confirming the trend.

This market will resolve to "Up" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.

This market will resolve to "Down" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is less than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.

If the population in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the population in the 4th quarter of 2026 are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50.

If the relevant quarterly population estimate release is not available by April 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.

The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).

Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$1,401
結束日期
2027-04-30
市場開放時間
Jan 27, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Up" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025. This market will resolve to "Down" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is less than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025. If the population in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the population in the 4th quarter of 2026 are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the relevant quarterly population estimate release is not available by April 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start). Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"Canada's population Up or Down this year?" is a daily prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell shares on whether Canada's population Up or Down this year?'s price will finish higher ("Up") or lower ("Down") than its opening price over the daily window specified in the title. The current market probability is 62% for "Down." A price of 62% means the market collectively assigns a 62% chance to that outcome. Prices update in real-time as traders react to live Canada's population Up or Down this year? price movements. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Canada's population Up or Down this year?" is an active short-term market on Polymarket. Trading volume can accumulate quickly as the daily window progresses — jump in early to help set the odds before this window closes.

To trade on "Canada's population Up or Down this year?," decide whether you believe Canada's population Up or Down this year?'s price at noon ET on April 29 will be higher ("Up") or lower ("Down") than Canada's population Up or Down this year?'s price at noon ET on January 27. Buy "Up" if you think the price will rise day-over-day, or "Down" if you think it will fall. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct at resolution, each share pays out $1.00. If incorrect, shares are worth $0.

The current probability for "Canada's population Up or Down this year?" is 62% for "Down," meaning the Polymarket crowd currently assigns a 62% chance that Canada's population Up or Down this year?'s price will finish down over this daily window. These odds update in real-time as traders react to live Canada's population Up or Down this year? price data. Over a full day, odds reflect evolving sentiment as the day's price action unfolds. Check back frequently or trade now before the window closes.

The "Canada's population Up or Down this year?" market resolves based on a comparison of Canada's population Up or Down this year?'s price at noon ET on April 29 versus noon ET on January 27, using Binance CANADAS-POPULATION/USDT 1-minute candle close prices. If the April 29 noon price is higher, the outcome is "Up"; if lower, "Down"; if equal, the market resolves 50-50. You can review the complete resolution criteria and data source in the "Rules" section on this page.