**Canada's population is projected to remain flat or decline slightly in 2026** due to federal immigration policy tightening that began accelerating in late 2024 and continued through the 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan released in November 2025. The plan stabilized permanent resident targets at 380,000 annually while sharply cutting temporary resident admissions—including a roughly 50% drop in new international student arrivals and reduced temporary foreign worker entries—to bring the non-permanent resident share down toward 5% of the total population. Statistics Canada data released in March 2026 confirmed the first annual population decline on record (–0.2% year-over-year as of January 1, 2026), driven by net outflows of non-permanent residents exceeding 461,000 over the prior year. Parliamentary Budget Officer projections and bank analyses align on near-zero or modestly negative growth for 2026 overall, with low natural increase offering little offset. These verified policy shifts and early-year data releases explain the current trader consensus favoring a net decrease for the calendar year.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Up
Up
This market will resolve to "Down" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is less than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.
If the population in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the population in the 4th quarter of 2026 are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50.
If the relevant quarterly population estimate release is not available by April 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: Jan 27, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Down" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is less than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.
If the population in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the population in the 4th quarter of 2026 are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50.
If the relevant quarterly population estimate release is not available by April 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...**Canada's population is projected to remain flat or decline slightly in 2026** due to federal immigration policy tightening that began accelerating in late 2024 and continued through the 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan released in November 2025. The plan stabilized permanent resident targets at 380,000 annually while sharply cutting temporary resident admissions—including a roughly 50% drop in new international student arrivals and reduced temporary foreign worker entries—to bring the non-permanent resident share down toward 5% of the total population. Statistics Canada data released in March 2026 confirmed the first annual population decline on record (–0.2% year-over-year as of January 1, 2026), driven by net outflows of non-permanent residents exceeding 461,000 over the prior year. Parliamentary Budget Officer projections and bank analyses align on near-zero or modestly negative growth for 2026 overall, with low natural increase offering little offset. These verified policy shifts and early-year data releases explain the current trader consensus favoring a net decrease for the calendar year.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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