Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors "No" on a US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30, driven by the escalating US-Israel military campaign against Iran, now in its second month with strikes intensifying on April 2–3 targeting military and infrastructure sites near nuclear facilities. President Trump's April 1 national address declared the conflict nearing completion of core objectives—degrading Iran's missile and nuclear capabilities—but warned of "extremely hard" hits over the next 2–3 weeks, sidelining diplomacy amid active hostilities. Earlier February indirect talks in Vienna stalled without agreement on sanctions relief or enrichment limits, and no formal negotiations have resumed. While indirect messaging via intermediaries persists, the tight 27-day timeline and ongoing escalation leave scant room for a verifiable deal; only an abrupt ceasefire or major Iranian concession could shift odds, though historical precedents in crises like this suggest low feasibility.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於是
$265,901 交易量
$265,901 交易量
2026-04-30
是
$265,901 交易量
$265,901 交易量
2026-04-30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors "No" on a US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30, driven by the escalating US-Israel military campaign against Iran, now in its second month with strikes intensifying on April 2–3 targeting military and infrastructure sites near nuclear facilities. President Trump's April 1 national address declared the conflict nearing completion of core objectives—degrading Iran's missile and nuclear capabilities—but warned of "extremely hard" hits over the next 2–3 weeks, sidelining diplomacy amid active hostilities. Earlier February indirect talks in Vienna stalled without agreement on sanctions relief or enrichment limits, and no formal negotiations have resumed. While indirect messaging via intermediaries persists, the tight 27-day timeline and ongoing escalation leave scant room for a verifiable deal; only an abrupt ceasefire or major Iranian concession could shift odds, though historical precedents in crises like this suggest low feasibility.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
市場開放時間： Mar 9, 2026, 4:56 PM ET
交易量
$265,901結束日期
2026-04-30市場開放時間
Mar 9, 2026, 4:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors "No" on a US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30, driven by the escalating US-Israel military campaign against Iran, now in its second month with strikes intensifying on April 2–3 targeting military and infrastructure sites near nuclear facilities. President Trump's April 1 national address declared the conflict nearing completion of core objectives—degrading Iran's missile and nuclear capabilities—but warned of "extremely hard" hits over the next 2–3 weeks, sidelining diplomacy amid active hostilities. Earlier February indirect talks in Vienna stalled without agreement on sanctions relief or enrichment limits, and no formal negotiations have resumed. While indirect messaging via intermediaries persists, the tight 27-day timeline and ongoing escalation leave scant room for a verifiable deal; only an abrupt ceasefire or major Iranian concession could shift odds, though historical precedents in crises like this suggest low feasibility.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
交易量
$265,901結束日期
2026-04-30市場開放時間
Mar 9, 2026, 4:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors "No" on a US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30, driven by the escalating US-Israel military campaign against Iran, now in its second month with strikes intensifying on April 2–3 targeting military and infrastructure sites near nuclear facilities. President Trump's April 1 national address declared the conflict nearing completion of core objectives—degrading Iran's missile and nuclear capabilities—but warned of "extremely hard" hits over the next 2–3 weeks, sidelining diplomacy amid active hostilities. Earlier February indirect talks in Vienna stalled without agreement on sanctions relief or enrichment limits, and no formal negotiations have resumed. While indirect messaging via intermediaries persists, the tight 27-day timeline and ongoing escalation leave scant room for a verifiable deal; only an abrupt ceasefire or major Iranian concession could shift odds, though historical precedents in crises like this suggest low feasibility.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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