Ongoing US-Iran military confrontation under President Trump's Operation Epic Fury has shattered prospects for a nuclear deal by June 30, driving trader consensus to an 78.5% implied probability on "No." Indirect talks mediated by Oman collapsed on February 28 after US-Israeli strikes killed Supreme Leader Khamenei and top officials amid reported progress on uranium limits and IAEA verification, eroding trust to "zero" per Iranian statements. Recent April exchanges—including strikes on Iranian negotiators, F-15 losses, and Hormuz disruptions—prompt Trump claims of "major agreement points" via Pakistan channels, but Tehran insists airstrikes halt first, deeming talks "impossible." With oil shocks and attrition risks mounting, escalation overshadows diplomacy absent de-escalation breakthroughs.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於是
$970,440 交易量
$970,440 交易量
2026-06-30
是
$970,440 交易量
$970,440 交易量
2026-06-30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Ongoing US-Iran military confrontation under President Trump's Operation Epic Fury has shattered prospects for a nuclear deal by June 30, driving trader consensus to an 78.5% implied probability on "No." Indirect talks mediated by Oman collapsed on February 28 after US-Israeli strikes killed Supreme Leader Khamenei and top officials amid reported progress on uranium limits and IAEA verification, eroding trust to "zero" per Iranian statements. Recent April exchanges—including strikes on Iranian negotiators, F-15 losses, and Hormuz disruptions—prompt Trump claims of "major agreement points" via Pakistan channels, but Tehran insists airstrikes halt first, deeming talks "impossible." With oil shocks and attrition risks mounting, escalation overshadows diplomacy absent de-escalation breakthroughs.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
市場開放時間： Dec 17, 2025, 5:47 PM ET
交易量
$970,440結束日期
2026-06-30市場開放時間
Dec 17, 2025, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Ongoing US-Iran military confrontation under President Trump's Operation Epic Fury has shattered prospects for a nuclear deal by June 30, driving trader consensus to an 78.5% implied probability on "No." Indirect talks mediated by Oman collapsed on February 28 after US-Israeli strikes killed Supreme Leader Khamenei and top officials amid reported progress on uranium limits and IAEA verification, eroding trust to "zero" per Iranian statements. Recent April exchanges—including strikes on Iranian negotiators, F-15 losses, and Hormuz disruptions—prompt Trump claims of "major agreement points" via Pakistan channels, but Tehran insists airstrikes halt first, deeming talks "impossible." With oil shocks and attrition risks mounting, escalation overshadows diplomacy absent de-escalation breakthroughs.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
交易量
$970,440結束日期
2026-06-30市場開放時間
Dec 17, 2025, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing US-Iran military confrontation under President Trump's Operation Epic Fury has shattered prospects for a nuclear deal by June 30, driving trader consensus to an 78.5% implied probability on "No." Indirect talks mediated by Oman collapsed on February 28 after US-Israeli strikes killed Supreme Leader Khamenei and top officials amid reported progress on uranium limits and IAEA verification, eroding trust to "zero" per Iranian statements. Recent April exchanges—including strikes on Iranian negotiators, F-15 losses, and Hormuz disruptions—prompt Trump claims of "major agreement points" via Pakistan channels, but Tehran insists airstrikes halt first, deeming talks "impossible." With oil shocks and attrition risks mounting, escalation overshadows diplomacy absent de-escalation breakthroughs.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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