Trader consensus prices a US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027 at 38.5% ("No" leading at 61.5%), driven by the collapse of indirect talks in February 2026 and the subsequent US-Israeli strikes igniting Operation Epic Fury. President Trump's April 1 address rejected ceasefire without Iran's full capitulation, demanding zero uranium enrichment, dismantlement of facilities like Fordow and Natanz, and export of stockpiles—terms Iran deems an assault on its NPT rights. Earlier Geneva and Oman rounds stalled amid US negotiator missteps and Tehran's insistence on sanctions relief first, shifting focus to military de-escalation signals absent from recent exchanges via intermediaries, which Iran denies as substantive diplomacy.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於是
$473,232 交易量
$473,232 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$473,232 交易量
$473,232 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Trader consensus prices a US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027 at 38.5% ("No" leading at 61.5%), driven by the collapse of indirect talks in February 2026 and the subsequent US-Israeli strikes igniting Operation Epic Fury. President Trump's April 1 address rejected ceasefire without Iran's full capitulation, demanding zero uranium enrichment, dismantlement of facilities like Fordow and Natanz, and export of stockpiles—terms Iran deems an assault on its NPT rights. Earlier Geneva and Oman rounds stalled amid US negotiator missteps and Tehran's insistence on sanctions relief first, shifting focus to military de-escalation signals absent from recent exchanges via intermediaries, which Iran denies as substantive diplomacy.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
市場開放時間： Nov 5, 2025, 11:47 AM ET
交易量
$473,232結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 5, 2025, 11:47 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Trader consensus prices a US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027 at 38.5% ("No" leading at 61.5%), driven by the collapse of indirect talks in February 2026 and the subsequent US-Israeli strikes igniting Operation Epic Fury. President Trump's April 1 address rejected ceasefire without Iran's full capitulation, demanding zero uranium enrichment, dismantlement of facilities like Fordow and Natanz, and export of stockpiles—terms Iran deems an assault on its NPT rights. Earlier Geneva and Oman rounds stalled amid US negotiator missteps and Tehran's insistence on sanctions relief first, shifting focus to military de-escalation signals absent from recent exchanges via intermediaries, which Iran denies as substantive diplomacy.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
交易量
$473,232結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 5, 2025, 11:47 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027 at 38.5% ("No" leading at 61.5%), driven by the collapse of indirect talks in February 2026 and the subsequent US-Israeli strikes igniting Operation Epic Fury. President Trump's April 1 address rejected ceasefire without Iran's full capitulation, demanding zero uranium enrichment, dismantlement of facilities like Fordow and Natanz, and export of stockpiles—terms Iran deems an assault on its NPT rights. Earlier Geneva and Oman rounds stalled amid US negotiator missteps and Tehran's insistence on sanctions relief first, shifting focus to military de-escalation signals absent from recent exchanges via intermediaries, which Iran denies as substantive diplomacy.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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