Trader consensus prices "No" at 85%, reflecting stalled US-Iran nuclear negotiations amid ongoing conflict, where Tehran insists on its right to uranium enrichment despite US demands for zero enrichment and stockpile surrender. Recent US intelligence confirms Iran has not rebuilt enrichment facilities destroyed in June 2025 strikes, but IAEA reports highlight persistent high-enriched uranium stockpiles, with no verified dilution or halt. Iranian officials, including the IAEA envoy, affirm no intent for weapons-grade pursuit yet reject full cessation, as seen in failed Geneva talks and Omani-mediated proposals. With June 30 approaching, hardliner opposition and diplomatic impasse—exacerbated by recent war rhetoric—underscore slim prospects for a public agreement, outweighing brief pauses like March ceasefires.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於是
$165,949 交易量
$165,949 交易量
2026-06-30
是
$165,949 交易量
$165,949 交易量
2026-06-30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus prices "No" at 85%, reflecting stalled US-Iran nuclear negotiations amid ongoing conflict, where Tehran insists on its right to uranium enrichment despite US demands for zero enrichment and stockpile surrender. Recent US intelligence confirms Iran has not rebuilt enrichment facilities destroyed in June 2025 strikes, but IAEA reports highlight persistent high-enriched uranium stockpiles, with no verified dilution or halt. Iranian officials, including the IAEA envoy, affirm no intent for weapons-grade pursuit yet reject full cessation, as seen in failed Geneva talks and Omani-mediated proposals. With June 30 approaching, hardliner opposition and diplomatic impasse—exacerbated by recent war rhetoric—underscore slim prospects for a public agreement, outweighing brief pauses like March ceasefires.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Feb 12, 2026, 3:26 PM ET
交易量
$165,949結束日期
2026-06-30市場開放時間
Feb 12, 2026, 3:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus prices "No" at 85%, reflecting stalled US-Iran nuclear negotiations amid ongoing conflict, where Tehran insists on its right to uranium enrichment despite US demands for zero enrichment and stockpile surrender. Recent US intelligence confirms Iran has not rebuilt enrichment facilities destroyed in June 2025 strikes, but IAEA reports highlight persistent high-enriched uranium stockpiles, with no verified dilution or halt. Iranian officials, including the IAEA envoy, affirm no intent for weapons-grade pursuit yet reject full cessation, as seen in failed Geneva talks and Omani-mediated proposals. With June 30 approaching, hardliner opposition and diplomatic impasse—exacerbated by recent war rhetoric—underscore slim prospects for a public agreement, outweighing brief pauses like March ceasefires.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$165,949結束日期
2026-06-30市場開放時間
Feb 12, 2026, 3:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 85%, reflecting stalled US-Iran nuclear negotiations amid ongoing conflict, where Tehran insists on its right to uranium enrichment despite US demands for zero enrichment and stockpile surrender. Recent US intelligence confirms Iran has not rebuilt enrichment facilities destroyed in June 2025 strikes, but IAEA reports highlight persistent high-enriched uranium stockpiles, with no verified dilution or halt. Iranian officials, including the IAEA envoy, affirm no intent for weapons-grade pursuit yet reject full cessation, as seen in failed Geneva talks and Omani-mediated proposals. With June 30 approaching, hardliner opposition and diplomatic impasse—exacerbated by recent war rhetoric—underscore slim prospects for a public agreement, outweighing brief pauses like March ceasefires.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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