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政治·獎項

2026年諾貝爾和平獎得主

Market icon
政治·獎項

2026年諾貝爾和平獎得主

弗拉基米爾·澤連斯基 11.3%

尤莉婭·納瓦利娜雅 11%

唐納·川普 8%

教宗利奧十四 4.5%

Polymarket

$12,147,549 交易量

弗拉基米爾·澤連斯基 11.3%

尤莉婭·納瓦利娜雅 11%

唐納·川普 8%

教宗利奧十四 4.5%

Polymarket

$12,147,549 交易量

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弗拉基米爾·澤連斯基

$405,887 交易量

11%

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尤莉婭·納瓦利娜雅

$87,574 交易量

11%

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唐納·川普

$2,330,770 交易量

8%

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教宗利奧十四

$511,238 交易量

4%

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國際法院

$532,880 交易量

4%

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塔米姆·本·哈馬德·阿勒薩尼

$383,159 交易量

4%

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聯合國近東巴勒斯坦難民救濟和工程處

$1,664,541 交易量

3%

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格蕾塔·童貝里

$950,156 交易量

3%

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納倫德拉·莫迪

$293,707 交易量

3%

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查理·柯克

$581,346 交易量

2%

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艾哈邁德·阿爾-沙拉

$579,035 交易量

2%

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安東尼奧·古特雷斯

$143,106 交易量

2%

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馬斯克

$535,251 交易量

2%

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習近平

$781,038 交易量

2%

Market icon

穆罕默德·本·薩勒曼

$576,798 交易量

2%

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雷杰普·塔伊普·艾爾多安

$418,125 交易量

2%

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朱利安·阿桑奇

$342,631 交易量

2%

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哈立德·馬沙爾

$205,261 交易量

1%

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弗拉基米爾·普京

$501,281 交易量

1%

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本雅明·內塔尼亞胡

$324,195 交易量

1%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a highly fragmented field for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, with Volodymyr Zelenskyy edging out Yulia Navalnaya at 11.3% and 10.5% implied probabilities, respectively, amid no outcome exceeding 12%. Zelenskyy's slight lead stems from a fresh nomination by University of Oslo Professor Dag Øistein Endsjø, framing Ukraine's resistance to Russian aggression as a bulwark for European democracy and peace—echoing past prizes for defensive stands. Navalnaya sustains momentum through her vocal opposition to Putin, carrying Alexei Navalny's human rights legacy. Donald Trump trails at 7.5% on self-promoted diplomatic feats like ceasefires, though recent escalations in Iran and elsewhere have eroded support. Pope Leo XIV and ICJ linger lower on humanitarian and judicial narratives. With the Norwegian Nobel Committee's secretive voting and October announcement looming, traders eye global flashpoints as pivotal swing factors in this unpredictable contest.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market.

If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
交易量
$12,147,549
結束日期
2026-10-10
市場開放時間
Oct 16, 2025, 6:04 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a highly fragmented field for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, with Volodymyr Zelenskyy edging out Yulia Navalnaya at 11.3% and 10.5% implied probabilities, respectively, amid no outcome exceeding 12%. Zelenskyy's slight lead stems from a fresh nomination by University of Oslo Professor Dag Øistein Endsjø, framing Ukraine's resistance to Russian aggression as a bulwark for European democracy and peace—echoing past prizes for defensive stands. Navalnaya sustains momentum through her vocal opposition to Putin, carrying Alexei Navalny's human rights legacy. Donald Trump trails at 7.5% on self-promoted diplomatic feats like ceasefires, though recent escalations in Iran and elsewhere have eroded support. Pope Leo XIV and ICJ linger lower on humanitarian and judicial narratives. With the Norwegian Nobel Committee's secretive voting and October announcement looming, traders eye global flashpoints as pivotal swing factors in this unpredictable contest.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market.

If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
交易量
$12,147,549
結束日期
2026-10-10
市場開放時間
Oct 16, 2025, 6:04 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"2026年諾貝爾和平獎得主" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 20 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "弗拉基米爾·澤連斯基" at 11%, followed by "尤莉婭·納瓦利娜雅" at 11%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 11¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 11% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "2026年諾貝爾和平獎得主" has generated $12.1 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Oct 16, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "2026年諾貝爾和平獎得主," browse the 20 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "2026年諾貝爾和平獎得主" is "弗拉基米爾·澤連斯基" at 11%, meaning the market assigns a 11% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "尤莉婭·納瓦利娜雅" at 11%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "2026年諾貝爾和平獎得主" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.