Trader consensus prices a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026 at just 29.5% ("Yes"), reflecting stalled U.S.-mediated peace talks and persistent military escalation. Zelenskiy’s recent Easter energy truce proposal, relayed via U.S. channels, drew a cool Kremlin response demanding immediate Ukrainian withdrawal from remaining Donbas territories, reiterated as a precondition on April 1. Russian aerial attacks killed two civilians amid Easter prisoner exchanges, while fresh drone barrages underscore ongoing hostilities despite limited POW swaps. No breakthroughs on core territorial disputes or security guarantees have emerged in the past week, with Russia launching its spring offensive and analysts citing incompatible demands as major barriers, though new talks could materialize if conditions shift before year-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於是
$12,439,734 交易量
$12,439,734 交易量
2026-12-31
賺 4% 收益
是
$12,439,734 交易量
$12,439,734 交易量
2026-12-31
賺 4% 收益
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Trader consensus prices a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026 at just 29.5% ("Yes"), reflecting stalled U.S.-mediated peace talks and persistent military escalation. Zelenskiy’s recent Easter energy truce proposal, relayed via U.S. channels, drew a cool Kremlin response demanding immediate Ukrainian withdrawal from remaining Donbas territories, reiterated as a precondition on April 1. Russian aerial attacks killed two civilians amid Easter prisoner exchanges, while fresh drone barrages underscore ongoing hostilities despite limited POW swaps. No breakthroughs on core territorial disputes or security guarantees have emerged in the past week, with Russia launching its spring offensive and analysts citing incompatible demands as major barriers, though new talks could materialize if conditions shift before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
市場開放時間： Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ET
交易量
$12,439,734結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ETWe anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Trader consensus prices a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026 at just 29.5% ("Yes"), reflecting stalled U.S.-mediated peace talks and persistent military escalation. Zelenskiy’s recent Easter energy truce proposal, relayed via U.S. channels, drew a cool Kremlin response demanding immediate Ukrainian withdrawal from remaining Donbas territories, reiterated as a precondition on April 1. Russian aerial attacks killed two civilians amid Easter prisoner exchanges, while fresh drone barrages underscore ongoing hostilities despite limited POW swaps. No breakthroughs on core territorial disputes or security guarantees have emerged in the past week, with Russia launching its spring offensive and analysts citing incompatible demands as major barriers, though new talks could materialize if conditions shift before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
交易量
$12,439,734結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ETWe anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Trader consensus prices a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026 at just 29.5% ("Yes"), reflecting stalled U.S.-mediated peace talks and persistent military escalation. Zelenskiy’s recent Easter energy truce proposal, relayed via U.S. channels, drew a cool Kremlin response demanding immediate Ukrainian withdrawal from remaining Donbas territories, reiterated as a precondition on April 1. Russian aerial attacks killed two civilians amid Easter prisoner exchanges, while fresh drone barrages underscore ongoing hostilities despite limited POW swaps. No breakthroughs on core territorial disputes or security guarantees have emerged in the past week, with Russia launching its spring offensive and analysts citing incompatible demands as major barriers, though new talks could materialize if conditions shift before year-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions