Trader consensus assigns a 98.8% implied probability to no Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, anchored by the Kremlin’s recent rebuff of President Zelenskyy’s Orthodox Easter truce offer and stalled US-mediated talks in late March. Moscow insists on Ukrainian withdrawal from all Donbas territories, including Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts where Russian forces claim near-full control and continue slow advances, while Kyiv rejects territorial concessions amid its drone strikes crippling 40% of Russia’s oil exports. Ongoing military actions—Russian drone barrages and Ukrainian counteroffensives—signal escalation over de-escalation, with prior deadlines like March 31 passing unresolved. In under four weeks, only a sudden diplomatic summit or battlefield collapse could shift odds, though entrenched positions make this improbable.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於俄羅斯x烏克蘭在2026年4月30日前停火？
俄羅斯x烏克蘭在2026年4月30日前停火？
是
$2,086,562 交易量
$2,086,562 交易量
2026-04-30
是
$2,086,562 交易量
$2,086,562 交易量
2026-04-30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Trader consensus assigns a 98.8% implied probability to no Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, anchored by the Kremlin’s recent rebuff of President Zelenskyy’s Orthodox Easter truce offer and stalled US-mediated talks in late March. Moscow insists on Ukrainian withdrawal from all Donbas territories, including Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts where Russian forces claim near-full control and continue slow advances, while Kyiv rejects territorial concessions amid its drone strikes crippling 40% of Russia’s oil exports. Ongoing military actions—Russian drone barrages and Ukrainian counteroffensives—signal escalation over de-escalation, with prior deadlines like March 31 passing unresolved. In under four weeks, only a sudden diplomatic summit or battlefield collapse could shift odds, though entrenched positions make this improbable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
市場開放時間： Feb 26, 2026, 6:03 PM ET
交易量
$2,086,562結束日期
2026-04-30市場開放時間
Feb 26, 2026, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Trader consensus assigns a 98.8% implied probability to no Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, anchored by the Kremlin’s recent rebuff of President Zelenskyy’s Orthodox Easter truce offer and stalled US-mediated talks in late March. Moscow insists on Ukrainian withdrawal from all Donbas territories, including Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts where Russian forces claim near-full control and continue slow advances, while Kyiv rejects territorial concessions amid its drone strikes crippling 40% of Russia’s oil exports. Ongoing military actions—Russian drone barrages and Ukrainian counteroffensives—signal escalation over de-escalation, with prior deadlines like March 31 passing unresolved. In under four weeks, only a sudden diplomatic summit or battlefield collapse could shift odds, though entrenched positions make this improbable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
交易量
$2,086,562結束日期
2026-04-30市場開放時間
Feb 26, 2026, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus assigns a 98.8% implied probability to no Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, anchored by the Kremlin’s recent rebuff of President Zelenskyy’s Orthodox Easter truce offer and stalled US-mediated talks in late March. Moscow insists on Ukrainian withdrawal from all Donbas territories, including Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts where Russian forces claim near-full control and continue slow advances, while Kyiv rejects territorial concessions amid its drone strikes crippling 40% of Russia’s oil exports. Ongoing military actions—Russian drone barrages and Ukrainian counteroffensives—signal escalation over de-escalation, with prior deadlines like March 31 passing unresolved. In under four weeks, only a sudden diplomatic summit or battlefield collapse could shift odds, though entrenched positions make this improbable.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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