Market icon
地緣政治·普京

普京在2026年12月31日之前就任俄羅斯總統？

Market icon
地緣政治·普京

普京在2026年12月31日之前就任俄羅斯總統？

6月 30

12月 31

6月 30

12月 31

是

11% 機率
Polymarket

$3,400,302 交易量

是

11% 機率
Polymarket

$3,400,302 交易量

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Vladimir Putin's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Vladimir Putin and the government of Russia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Vladimir Putin's current six-year presidential term, secured in the March 2024 election with over 87% of the vote, runs until 2030, bolstered by 2020 constitutional amendments resetting term limits and potentially allowing rule until 2036. Trader consensus at 89.5% for "No" reflects his unchallenged control amid suppressed opposition and elite loyalty, with no official announcements of resignation, removal, or succession plans materializing. Recent health rumors—fueled by March 2026 videos of coughing during speeches and brief public absences—have circulated but proven unsubstantiated, as Putin maintains active duties like agency meetings. Ongoing Ukraine conflict pressures have not eroded his position, with high approval ratings persisting into early 2026; abrupt shifts would require elite coup, severe health crisis, or military reversal.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Vladimir Putin's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Vladimir Putin and the government of Russia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$3,400,302
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Jul 6, 2025, 6:29 PM ET

結算方

0x157Ce2d67...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Vladimir Putin's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Vladimir Putin and the government of Russia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Vladimir Putin's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Vladimir Putin and the government of Russia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Vladimir Putin's current six-year presidential term, secured in the March 2024 election with over 87% of the vote, runs until 2030, bolstered by 2020 constitutional amendments resetting term limits and potentially allowing rule until 2036. Trader consensus at 89.5% for "No" reflects his unchallenged control amid suppressed opposition and elite loyalty, with no official announcements of resignation, removal, or succession plans materializing. Recent health rumors—fueled by March 2026 videos of coughing during speeches and brief public absences—have circulated but proven unsubstantiated, as Putin maintains active duties like agency meetings. Ongoing Ukraine conflict pressures have not eroded his position, with high approval ratings persisting into early 2026; abrupt shifts would require elite coup, severe health crisis, or military reversal.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Vladimir Putin's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Vladimir Putin and the government of Russia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$3,400,302
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Jul 6, 2025, 6:29 PM ET

結算方

0x157Ce2d67...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Vladimir Putin's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Vladimir Putin and the government of Russia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"普京在2026年12月31日之前就任俄羅斯總統？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "普丁會在2026年12月31日前卸任俄羅斯總統嗎？" at 11%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 11¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 11% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "普京在2026年12月31日之前就任俄羅斯總統？" has generated $3.4 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 6, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "普京在2026年12月31日之前就任俄羅斯總統？," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "普京在2026年12月31日之前就任俄羅斯總統？" is "普丁會在2026年12月31日前卸任俄羅斯總統嗎？" at 11%, meaning the market assigns a 11% chance to that outcome. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "普京在2026年12月31日之前就任俄羅斯總統？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.